“Zero Hour” is approaching between Iran and Israel policy

About five months after the first round of fighting between Iran and Israel, indicators of the possibility of a second phase of confrontation between these two regional actors have risen again, signaling the approaching “zero hour” for a new confrontation.

The most prominent of these indicators are:

• Significant movements in global markets.
• Washington will accelerate the delivery of accurate missiles with bunker-piercing capabilities to Israel.
• Pressure mounts on Joseph Aoun’s government to disarm Hezbollah and cut off its sources of funding.
• Threatening phone call from Pete Hegseth to the Iraqi Defense Minister regarding pro-Iranian groups.
• Security measures taken by the Revolutionary Guard in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Euro-Atlantic consultations to prepare an urgent plan to return IAEA inspectors.
• Escalation in dealing with Iran’s new nuclear activities, with a focus on the “Koh Kalank” and “Talqan-2” sites.
• Reopening of the Jeffrey Epstein sex scandal.
• Attempts to ignite internal chaos in Iran by focusing on the drought crisis.
• The approaching elections in the United States and occupied Palestine are all clear indicators of the increasing possibility of a new attack by Israel (and perhaps America) on strategic targets inside Iran.

Global and regional markets fear the return of the specter of war

In November, the geopolitical risk resulting from escalating tensions between Iran and Israel remained one of the most prominent factors affecting global markets.

During the 12-day war, the price of Brent oil rose at the height of tension to about $81 per barrel, and the fear index in markets such as the VIX jumped to above 20 points, while investors rushed towards safe assets such as gold and the US dollar.

Global stock markets initially fell during the first war, but quickly recovered as the limits of the conflict became clear, showing that markets typically absorb short-term geopolitical risks, barring sustained disruptions to energy supplies such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As it stands, the possibility of a second war still exists; Since Tehran has not stopped its nuclear program, the Iranian authorities have made rebuilding military power a strategic priority.

Therefore, markets have maintained a “geopolitical risk premium” of $5 to $10 in the price of a barrel of oil. Foreign direct investments in the Gulf region have also declined, and if tensions flare up again, oil prices may exceed the $100 barrier, global inflation will rise, and economic growth will slow.

Revolutionary Guard movements in the Strait of Hormuz

The 12-Day War reminded some of Iran’s political elites that turmoil in energy markets continues to directly impact the United States and the course of its presidents’ decisions.

Donald Trump expressed this matter in a post on the “Truth Social” platform, where he called for the implementation of the “Drill, baby, drill” plan, and called on oil-producing countries to reduce prices, which reflects Washington’s sensitivity to the effects of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on energy markets.

Economists believe that if the war spreads to other areas of the region, the possibility of a “jump” in oil prices, and subsequent inflation in American markets, will be very high. This economic shock may directly affect the results of the midterm congressional elections.

According to this analysis, the Rapid Response Units of the Revolutionary Guard Naval Forces intercepted and detained an oil tanker named “Talara” and flying the flag of the Marshall Islands. This action, which took place on the southern side of the Iranian maritime border, is a deeply significant message to the Trump economic team and to global markets.

Providing Israel with bunker-piercing missiles by America

In conjunction with the cessation of the war in Gaza, the Israeli army resumed a new campaign of attacks against targets linked to the axis of resistance extending from Lebanon to Yemen.

In addition to precise air strikes, the Aman and Mossad services continue to carry out an assassination campaign targeting prominent leaders, including the chiefs of staff of the Ansar Allah group and Hezbollah.

In this context, Israel began the process of purchasing guided missiles of the “MK-82”, “MK-84”, “BLU-117”, “GBU-39B”, “DLU-109”, and “DLU-110” guided missiles.

According to published information, the Israeli army, in coordination with Centcom, requested three thousand units of each type. The value of this new military deal is ten billion dollars. It is estimated that the agreement was signed during the Biden administration, but its implementation is taking place during the Trump administration.

Tehran’s effort to address previous shortcomings and enhance the offensive and defensive capabilities of its armed forces makes “time” a factor that does not serve Netanyahu’s interest, who faces new elections in 2026.

“Iran is weak but dangerous”; Strategy to prepare for a new attack

Following the third war in Lebanon and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024, think tanks and media outlets loyal to the American establishment began claiming that Iran and the “axis of resistance” were at their weakest point in years.

This deliberate portrayal of Iran’s military and security capabilities contributed to pushing Trump to approve a comprehensive attack plan by Israel on Iran, while providing American support to target the nuclear sites in Natanz and Fordow.

Although Trump and Netanyahu claimed after the 12-day war that they had destroyed the Iranian nuclear program and part of its missile capabilities, the media supported by the Israeli lobby in New York returned to leading a new psychological campaign by publishing topics such as “the mystery of the Iranian nuclear file,” “the unknown fate of 408 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium,” “helping China enhance Iran’s missile capabilities,” and “quickly rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities.” With the aim of preparing public opinion to launch another attack on Iran.

Jeffrey Epstein file reopened

Since August 4, 2025, when the Wall Street Journal, owned by Zionist billionaire Rupert Murdoch, published a report containing Donald Trump’s name in the Epstein scandal case, this file has dominated American news headlines.

This issue is so sensitive that some analysts likened it to the Bill Clinton scandal. Iranian analysts believe that the pressure exerted by influential men such as Mark Levin, Nelson Peltz, Isaac Perlmutter, and Rupert Murdoch on Trump to enter into a direct confrontation with Iran before the outbreak of the possible June war raises the possibility that highlighting the Epstein file could be a blackmail tool from Netanyahu to push Trump toward war.

Drought crisis and efforts to create internal chaos

The sharp decline in rainfall rates in West Asia has led to a water crisis in several countries with dry climates. Some sources indicate that the water reserve in at least 16 dams inside Iran has decreased to less than 10%.

The coincidence of this situation with the worsening economic inflation has reduced the “threshold of citizens’ patience,” which has strengthened Netanyahu’s hopes of igniting an internal crisis in Iran.

In recent weeks, a series of events have occurred, such as the publication of alleged photos showing the support of some members of the Iranian army for Reza Pahlavi, the leaking of photos and videos of members of the Shamkhani family and Rahim Safavi, in addition to an intense psychological campaign launched by accounts and media platforms linked to the Israeli intelligence service, highlighting the water crisis in Tehran, in an attempt by Tel Aviv to prepare the ground for internal chaos that will pave the way for a second attack on strategic targets in Iran.

Changing the balance by tightening the pressure on the axis of resistance

Two years after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle, Netanyahu intends to deal a devastating blow to Iran’s allies in the region. On the Lebanese front, the Israeli government accused Beirut of failing to disarm Hezbollah and deploy the Lebanese army in the south of the country, threatening to expand the scope of its attacks to the north of the Litani River if the provision of Resolution 1701 issued by the Security Council was not implemented.

The construction of the latest security wall by the Israeli army near the southern Lebanese border reflects Netanyahu’s determination to expand the scope of the battles against Hezbollah and prevent the rebuilding of its military arsenal.

In the same context, a delegation from the US Treasury Department recently visited Beirut and gave the Lebanese authorities 60 days to take effective steps to stop funding the party, which shows an unprecedented escalation in pressure.

In Iraq, during a call between Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of War, and Thabet Al-Abbasi, the Iraqi Minister of Defense, Hegseth warned of the United States’ intention to launch a military operation against one of the countries in the region, stressing that any reaction issued by the factions loyal to Iran would be dealt with forcefully.

Zero hour approaches

Netanyahu and his allies’ efforts to win the 2026 elections, the accelerated pace of rebuilding Iran’s missile arsenal with support from China, the purchase of air defense systems and advanced fighter aircraft such as the HQ-9B and Sukhoi 35, the continuation of the “nuclear ambiguity” policy, the ambiguity surrounding the fate of 408 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, and faltering prospects for resuming nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington – all of these Factors make the possibility of a new confrontation between Iran and Israel more likely than ever before.

Tehran’s efforts to address previous shortcomings and enhance the offensive and defensive capabilities of its armed forces make “time” a factor that does not serve Netanyahu’s interest. In light of these facts, the countdown to the “zero hour” for the expected Israeli attack on Iran has begun.