The Chinese economy, which sometimes competes with the United States (USA) for the place of largest in the world, registered a slight slowdown in the third quarter, but analysts consider that general activity is even going better than expected and that China is managing, in terms of its gigantic export sector, to “more than compensate” for the destructive effects of the trade war declared by the President of the USA in March this year because, says a new study, it is sell much more to other regions of the world, namely to Asian neighbors, Africa and Europe.
The year-on-year rate of change of the Chinese economy “fell slightly to 4.8% (vs. 5.2% in the previous quarter), the lowest value of the last year”, however, “the Chinese economy continues to show robustness and managed to maintain an annualized growth rate of 4.5% in the first three quarters of the year”, and the growth recorded in this quarter (the aforementioned 4.8%) was even “slightly above the analysts’ consensus expectations”, which pointed to 4.7%, indicates a study by Banco BPI, released this Monday.
BPI Research states that there is “a reacceleration of Chinese exports, which registered year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September (vs. 4.3% in August), representing the fastest growth rate since March, when the global economy anticipated American tariffs”.
“Although exports to the US continue to fall significantly (-27% in September; -16.9% year to date), the impact is more than offset by significant increases in export flows to other destinations.”
The list of foreign markets experiencing strong expansion is long. According to the BPI research office, “between January and September, exports to Vietnam (one of China’s main trading partners and a fundamental platform for redirecting trade flows) grew 22.3% (vs. 17.6% in 2024)”.
In addition, exports to the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) “grew 14.7% (vs. 12% in 2024), having also grown 12.9% to India (vs. 2.4% in 2024)”.
Chinese imports “also recovered in September (7.5% year-on-year vs. 1.3% previously), an increase explained, in part, by the accumulation of stocks, with substantial accelerations in imports of chips and various raw materials”, states the same analysis.
Remember that these most recent data on the performance of the Chinese economy come at a decisive moment in the country’s economic planning.
China’s top authorities – the plenary of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party takes place between October 20 and 23, in Beijing – are expected to announce on Wednesday the guidelines and goals for the economy and the country in the new five-year plan for the period 2026-2030, of which a first summary will be revealed.