LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Speculation surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, is increasing. On the Polymarket platform, four users bet a total of $62,000 that Nakamoto will move Bitcoin this year. The bets have increased the probability to 15%, raising questions about possible inside information.
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Speculation surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, has increased significantly in recent weeks. On the Polymarket platform, four users bet a total of $62,000 that Nakamoto will move Bitcoin this year. These bets have increased the odds of this actually happening to 15% from 2% at the start of the month. This development has led to intense discussions as to whether bettors may have inside information.
Bitcoin, the first and most famous cryptocurrency, was created in 2008 by a person or group under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. To date, Nakamoto’s true identity is unknown, and he or she is believed to own approximately 1.1 million Bitcoin that has never been moved. However, recent bets on Polymarket have caught the attention of the crypto community as two of the wallets involved were freshly funded to put a total of $30,000 on the market.
Some observers speculate that the bettors may be Satoshi Nakamoto himself or have information not available to the public. Another theory is that users question the reliability of the source used to unwind the market. The market will be resolved as “Yes” if a wallet identified as Satoshis shows an outflow or exchange. These wallets were identified according to the so-called Patoshi pattern, which describes mining behavior in the early Bitcoin blocks.
The discussions about possible insider information on Polymarket are not new. Earlier this month, odds that Venezuelan resistance leader Maria Corina Machado would win the Nobel Peace Prize rose from nearly zero to over 70% just hours before the awards ceremony. This led to an investigation by the Nobel Prize organizers. Such events raise questions about the role of insider knowledge in prediction markets that aim to provide accurate information even if it could deter other users from betting.
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