NEW YORK / LONDON (IT BOLTWISE) – Gold prices have proven resilient in recent weeks, despite a temporary dip in prices. Investors are eagerly watching developments surrounding US inflation data and geopolitical tensions that could have a lasting impact on the market.
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Gold prices have shown remarkable resilience in recent weeks, despite recently experiencing a significant decline. In less than 10 trading days, the price of the troy ounce fell almost nine percent, driven by continued profit-taking and a strengthening US dollar. Nevertheless, many investors see the $4,000 mark as the new lower limit, which is reflected in a cautious rebound in December futures to $4,123.
A decisive factor for the future development of the gold price is the upcoming US inflation data. Analysts expect core inflation to remain at 3.1 percent in September, while headline inflation could rise slightly to 3.1 percent. These numbers are very important because they influence expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Higher inflation numbers could support gold prices as they dampen hopes of imminent interest rate cuts and raise doubts about the stability of the dollar.
Chart-wise, gold is currently in correction mode after breaking the steep upline. The lower boundary of the long-term uptrend channel is around $3,600, providing a comfortable safety net. In the short term, however, the technical situation calls for caution: a fall below $4,000 could trigger a downward acceleration, while a rise above $4,200 would be seen as a signal of stabilization.
Fundamentally, gold remains well supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and a choppy bond landscape. The rising deficits in the USA and Europe are raising long-term doubts about the value of paper money. In addition, the recent rise in oil prices could further fuel inflation, which supports gold’s inflation-protecting nature in the long term. However, investors should note that the market is characterized by uncertainty and the phase of easy gains is over.
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