Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats win the elections in Denmark, but the center will decide the government

The three forces that governed together the last legislature fell ten percentage points and were far from the majority, so the Danish ballots once again placed the centrist as the arbiter. The Moderates: promote the formation of a center government, like the last legislature.

100% of the votes counted, the left has obtained 48.2% and 84 seats compared to 44.1% and 77 deputies from the right, so the 7.7% and 14 mandates of The Moderates would be decisive and the four deputies who equally divide the autonomous territories of Greenland and the Faroe Islands could be relevant.

90 seats are needed to achieve an absolute majority in the Parliamentthe Danish parliament.

The Social Democratic Party has been the most voted, with 21.9%, although it garnered the worst result in a centuryahead of the Popular Socialist Party, with 11.5%, and the Liberal Party, with 10.2%, the worst figures in its history, although it could remain the most voted force in the right-wing bloc, contrary to what the exit polls indicated.

The Liberal Alliance would be fourth with 9.4%, followed by the far-right Danish People’s Party, with 9.1%, and The Moderates, with 7.7%.

The government coalition loses more than ten points

The outgoing Government, composed of Social Democrats, Moderates and the socioliberals of Venstre, has no options for reissue.

“The coalition parties have suffered the greatest losses because the Danes were incredibly dissatisfied with the government, which has been one of the most unpopular in history,” explains explains in conversation with this newspaper Carolyn Hjort Rappassociate professor of Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen.

This coalition was an unprecedented formula in Danish politics that Frederiksen resorted to, alluding to the difficult geopolitical situation, despite the fact that he had a majority with the left, with whose support he had led the country between 2019 and 2022.

“Many were especially dissatisfied with the way in which Frederiksen managed the mink crisis and many other national policies, for example, educational policy,” lists the specialist, who nevertheless recognizes that the prime minister “was ‘saved’ by her good image in foreign policy and the fact of being a strong leader compared to many other European leaders.”

“The polls have been very positive for SF throughout the legislature. SF has been a strong party in previous elections, but lost more in 2022,” says Rapp. “It seems that people are moving from the social democrats to SF to have a truly social democratic politics. That is, S’s loss is SF’s gain.”

Frederiksen appears “ready”

Despite these results, Frederiksen has said to continue “being ready to assume responsibility as Prime Minister of Denmark for the next four years.” At her party’s election party, she added that it will not be “easy” and that “we must all accept compromises”, without giving any further clues.

He admitted that he expected a better result, but recalled that his party continues to have the most votes, that only has fallen four points compared to 2019 and that it was normal to lose support due to the “wear” of power and to lead the country in years marked by crises such as the coronavirus, the Russian war in Ukraine and the threats from the United States to try to take over Greenland.

“Denmark needs a stable and competent government and we are ready to lead it,” Frederiksen said.

Several Danish political analysts speculated after the election result with the formation of a center government that, apart from the three current forces, would also include the Conservative Party and the Social Liberal Party, now in the left bloc but which in the past has supported center-right executives.

That formula would add 94 seats, four more than necessary for an absolute majority.

Great result from the socialists and the classic xenophobic right

In the left bloc, the political force that advances the most is the Popular Socialist Party, more than three points, confirming the historic victory achieved in the 2024 European elections and the good result in the municipal elections four months ago, in which it snatched the mayor of Copenhagen from the social democrats after a century.

In the right-wing bloc, the great winner is the Danish People’s Party, a precursor force two decades ago of a hard line on immigration in Denmark and the rest of Scandinavia, which would regain weight in Danish politics after the debacle of 2022, tripling its votes.

Up to twelve political forces overcome the minimum barrier of 2% to enter the Folketing (Danish parliament), the same number as today.