The Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenskicongratulated this Thursday Donald Trump for the agreement in principle reached in Egypt for a peace process in Gaza and called for a “global effort” to achieve a similar ceasefire in his country.
“If violence and war stop in one part of the world, global security increases for everyone,” he said, before accusing Russia of being the great sponsor of terrorism around the world and insisting on the need for greater “international pressure” against Putin.
Obviously, the contexts are very different, as evidenced by the fact that Trump has already achieved two ceasefires in Gaza in less than nine months in office, while there has been no progress in Ukraine, a war that he promised to end in 24 hours. The excellent relations that the current White House has with the Arab world, whom it has managed to add to its peace project and in turn bring closer to Israel, have a lot to do with this.
Ukraine strikes back with precise, targeted attacks, and unlike Russia, we know exactly what we aim to achieve. Peace, of course. We are not waging war for the sake of war, as Russia does. Even Hamas shows deal-making acumen, but not Putin. For now. Together with our partners, we… pic.twitter.com/PqwhYIKrkz
– Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Volodymyr Zelenskyy (@zelenskyyua) October 9, 2025
However, with Russia, Trump fails to find the key. Part of the responsibility is his own, since from the beginning he has adopted a territorial peace approach that has worked in the past in the Middle East, but that is not in Putin’s mind. The Russian president has not gotten into this war to see if he can conquer Pokrovsk, but to restore the absolute dominion of his country over the neighbor and turn it into a kind of colony. This is not, as he repeats, a question of security, but rather an attempt to refound an empire. Given that, it is very difficult to negotiate.
The other part of the responsibility falls on Europe. The example of Gaza, Zelensky seems to point out, makes clear what can happen when an entire region rows in the same direction. Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and even, somewhat more reluctantly, Turkey, have become involved in the process and have given Trump, to a greater or lesser extent, what Trump asked for. The same cannot be said of the European Unionwhose weight has proven insufficient to pressure any of the actors in the eastern conflict.
All quiet on the front
Another big difference, of course, is the almost absolute balance on the combat front between Russia and Ukraine, something that did not occur in Gaza.
Putin still thinks he can win a war in the long term and Zelensky sees no reason to surrender more territory in exchange for a truce that he knows is temporary. From autumn 2022and this has been three years ago, no really significant changes are seen and the Ukrainian defense line remains in Donetsk, many kilometers from the Dnieper River, which could act as a natural line of withdrawal.
For much of the spring, there was talk of a Russian summer offensive that ultimately did not arrive. Every few months, there is speculation about a new magic piece that will tip the balance in favor of Moscow – mobilization, drones, fatigue… – but nothing seems to overcome local resistance.
Putin has demographics in his favor and the ability to continue sending people to the slaughterhouse. On the contrary, he knows that more mobilizations and in centers of power like Saint Petersburg or the capital itself can turn the elites against him.
It seems that the Kremlin’s great hope right now It is not in a military victory, but in a political change in kyiv, either through elections – but for that there would have to be a ceasefire at some point – or through a kind of coup d’état in which the Russian secret services can collaborate, taking advantage of the unrest of the Ukrainian citizens.
The fight for gas
Now, this discomfort must be stirred up. That’s why, in recent months, the Russian military has concentrated its most violent attacks against civilian targets in kyiv and other large cities… and on power plants and gas refineries. The goal is to reduce as much as possible the amount of thermal energy that Ukraine can generate this winter. As reported by the Financial Times and the Bloomberg network, until 60% of Ukraine’s own resources would already be unused.
That said, Ukraine continues to maintain the remaining 40%… and has a line of credit to import the rest, thanks to help from the European Union. So far this year alone, it is estimated that kyiv has purchased 4.58 billion cubic meters of gas. To endure the winter, it may need another 4.4 billion until March, which, in turn, may cause energy shortages in Europe and, above all, given the shortage, can skyrocket prices.
“Russia will do everything possible to not let us extract our gas,” said Zelensky, who boasted for his part that he had reduced the enemy’s energy capacity by 20% with the attacks of recent days. Perhaps all the figures are inflated to make allies aware of the need to improve Ukrainian air defenses, or perhaps the estimate is correct, in which case Ukraine, Russia, and probably some parts of Europe could be affected this winter by supply problems and supply cuts.
Whether that will be enough to spark a citizen rebellion in kyiv or whether it will force European governments to rethink the need for peace at any price is less clear. This will be the fourth winter of war and Russia has always played the cold card to deter Europe, without any success. The issue will be to see what Trump’s first winter with this conflict is like and if in the end he decides to send the Tomahawks to Ukraine. Something that, unfortunately, will help local defense, but will hardly guarantee that Putin throws in the towel.