Relationships are always difficult. Perhaps even more so in politics. The Government is interested in a strong Vox, which hits the PP electorate – as the latest polls agree – because that would give the PSOE options to aspire to regain a majority and because it allows it to add coal to the cauldron of fear of a government of Alberto Núñez Feijóo with Santiago Abascal, a strategy that worked well in the last general elections. But what is the limit? Overwatering makes it difficult to control how far the plant grows. And that concern is installed in the Government. A Vox with 53 seats and 16% of the vote (Sigma Dos) or 16.7% (40db) begins to set off the alarms. “We already have enough with the current PP,” say executive sources at the highest level. “We are not crazy, “We are not interested in a country where Vox can eat the PP”.
In La Moncloa they know that the electoral contest has to be a two for two, that is, that on one side there are PP and Vox and on the other the PSOE and a single space that is to their left – an issue that continues to generate a headache in the presidential complex – and not a division. And in that confrontation they hope that the radical right party subtract potential to the popular to try to fight to win the day, for example, in the provinces that distribute three seats – achieving a 2-1 against the PP. “It is good for us that Vox has growth because it reduces the strength of the PP,” they analyze in the government engine room.
There are, in theory, two years left until the next elections, but socialist strategists already point out that the battle could range from 14-15 seats. In June, as a result of the Cerdán report, the Government’s internal data showed a drop of about seven points in the vote. “It was our weakest moment”. Now, the numbers they have indicate that they have regained ground. “We can say that, in October, there is a game.” Strategically, no one in the Executive hides that Vox’s strength suits them well to build a story and mobilize the left-wing electorate. In fact, the fear of a PP-Vox Government is one of La Moncloa’s main resources to try to ensure that its partners do not let them fall.
But in a context of the rise of the extreme right in Europe and around the world, internally there is “concern about the rise of the extreme right, because we do not know where this is taking us.” In the socialist control room there are many municipalities on the radar in which they can be decisive. “And there they will do whatever they want.”warn about reversing rights or measures achieved. That Sánchez has encouraged and benefits him from the confrontation with Vox is a fact. The head of the Executive boasts that his Government is a “wall” against the “reactionary right”, that Spain, thanks to the fact that he formed a government, “stopped the extreme right” or that the socialists are the “last line of defense” against the extreme right in Europe. The rise of Vox, a hypothetical horizon in which it could emerge as an alternative or bid with the PP, would, therefore, be a great failure for the Government coalition.
“We want to continue governing and anything that makes the PP stumble is good for us, but without losing sight of the danger of Vox becoming an alternative instead of the PP. It would be terrible for this country. The PSOE does not want to confront Vox directly,” reflect the people who work side by side with Sánchez. What is a confirmation is that, as could have happened at the time with Can wethe presence of Vox in political life and its arrival in the institutions has normalized its vote and support.
In the Government they believe that what happened to the PP happened to them back in 2016 with the party led by Pablo Iglesias. It ate up their ground, there was a threat of surprise. “There you have to decide if you radicalize yourself to compete or stay in your positions waiting for people to stay with you,” says a minister. “The PP’s strategy is wrong,” adds another. They believe that the fact of wanting “blend in“On issues such as migration or abortion, it makes people “choose the original and not the copy.” “Feijóo’s lack of leadership has made him move closer to Vox. It has not been correct in how to act against the extreme right.” Hence, the feeling they have in the Government is that with the current PP “their approach or we can already do it“. They don’t need Vox as a contender.
The elections in Castilla y León, which will be held in the first quarter of 2026, are considered a turning point. The socialists see the popular Alfonso Fernández Mañueco in a weak position after the management of the fires, and that Vox is very strong, growing. His opinion is that the PP will need them if it wants to maintain power, but that Abascal’s people will make the most of that position. “That is why Genoa encourages a superdomingo election that no one wants in their party.