After the first shock of a night of local elections, now follows weeks of endless panels of commentators analyzing every and every detail of the current electoral behavior of the Portuguese.
Yes, it is true that Luís Montenegro and his PSD are the big winners of the elections. In a festive atmosphere, on Sunday night, the Prime Minister simply had to remember that he is the Government, being the force with the most votes in the legislature; which now has the largest number of councils (controlling the five largest in the country), as well as the largest number of parishes. In the current political spectrum, the PSD is at the top of the food chain and Luís Montenegro will not fail to remind us of this, associating the good moment with his leadership. If António Costa was nicknamed the “Alchemist of Opportunities”, there is no reason why Montenegro should not be the same now too.
Still in the center, but on the left, José Luís Carneiro’s PS showed remarkable resilience. It’s true that the socialists lost two dozen municipalities compared to 2021, but the PS went to the heart of Cavakistan to win Viseu, recovered Bragança and fought well – on steep terrain, let’s say – in Lisbon and Porto. The most bitter taste of the night was hearing the secretary general of the socialists claim victory for, I quote, “being neck and neck with the Government in the number of chambers” or for having put up a good fight, but losing, in Lisbon and Porto. It’s like listening to a coach from Benfica, Sporting or FC Porto celebrating a second place.
Having said that, the big elephant in the room is the performance of Chega, by André Ventura, in the local authorities. At first glance, Chega ended the night defeated, since the conquest of the councils of Albufeira, Entroncamento and São Vicente (in Madeira) were far from Ventura’s almost unrealistic expectations of winning 30 municipal councils in 2025. What’s more, with the grievance of Ventura having predicted, live, (and failed) the conquest of the Moita council.
But there is an unavoidable reading in Chega’s results: the party elected 137 councilors, including in more than a dozen district capitals. Only in four of them is there not a Chega man on the council executive. And is that worth anything? Of course. With the results more dispersed than ever by various parties, we will still see single councilors making or not making important city decisions over the next four years viable.
This conclusion opens up space to think that, after all, Chega may have legs for races other than legislative ones, elections in which attention is concentrated only on the party leader. In 2025, the distribution of Chega’s votes across the various municipalities gave 137 councilors, some of them with decisive intervention capacity, but in 2029 the story could be different. This is if André Ventura is thinking several moves away and if he is able to free himself from the idea that Chega is a one-man party.
Deputy Director of Diário de Notícias