The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a surplus of 0.2% of GDP this year and a zero balance next year, more pessimistic than the Government, but the only institution that does not estimate a deficit.
According to the Fiscal Monitor released today, the IMF estimates that Portugal will achieve a surplus of 0.2% this year and a balance of 0.0% in 2026, while the Government foresees, in the State Budget proposal for 2026, surpluses of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.
The entity is the exception among institutions that follow the Portuguese economy, and, according to the most recent forecasts, the European Commission, the Bank of Portugal, the OECD and the Public Finance Council all point to a deficit in 2026, particularly due to the impact of the loans provided for in the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
However, the IMF has forecasts until the end of the decade, in a scenario of invariant policies, and projects negative budget balances from 2027 to 2030: –0.2% in 2027, –0.5% in 2028, –0.7% in 2029 and –0.9% in 2030.
The institution explains that “projections for the current year are based on the budget approved by the authorities, adjusted to reflect the IMF team’s macroeconomic forecast.”
“Subsequent projections are based on the premise of invariant policies”, with “projections for 2025 reflecting the information available in the 2025 budget proposal”.
The IMF also has forecasts for public debt, estimating that the ratio will fall to 90.9% in 2025 and 86.9% in 2026. In OE2026, the executive estimates a reduction in the public debt ratio to 90.2% of GDP in 2025 and 87.8% in 2026.