When everything seemed to be going in a direction in accordance with Ukraine and on the eve of the visit of Volodímir Zelenski to the White House this Friday, Donald Trump surprised everyone with a new twist in the script. Early on Thursday he announced a call with Vladimir Putin without specifying the reason; call that lasted just over two hours and ended with the invitation to a new summit between the two leaders in Budapest, with their mutual friend Viktor Orbán as host.
Trump called the conversation “productive,” although the Kremlin has not yet made it known whether Putin plans to accept the invitation or not. Presumably the main topic of conversation was the delivery of Tomahawk missile systems to Ukraine, something Zelensky has been asking for for some time.
Although Moscow has made it clear that the use of this type of missile on Russian soil would be a “dramatic escalation” of the conflict, since they have a much greater range than the Himars or even the Atacms, Trump has recently publicly flirted with accepting the Ukrainian request.
According to the American press, the previous summit, held in Alaska, marked a before and after in relations between both leaders. Trump was very unhappy with Putin’s attitude and his refusal to sit at a three-way table with him and Zelensky. It must be remembered that Trump even organized a very strange meeting, including a press conference, with the great European leaders in which said meeting was taken for granted. He stuck out his chest for it and the Russians, in the end, backed down.
All this time, and even more so after the success of the negotiations with Israel and Hamas last month, the American president has been thinking about how to get Putin back on the path of negotiation… and he has understood that it will have to be through force and deterrence and not flattery. Trump has been repeating for some time how badly Russia is doing in the war, the immense courage of Ukraine and publicly taking sides on Zelensky’s side, with threats of economic sanctions on China and India for importing Russian gas and oil.
Peace through strength
However, words are carried by the wind and what counts are the actions. If the Administration’s obsession Biden was to avoid cornering Putin for fear that he would use nuclear weapons – this is what they have stated Bob Woodward y Jim Sciutto in their respective books—Trump has chosen to see the stakes and put his weapons on the table. It is curious that a Government supported by the MAGA movement under the premise of non-interference in other people’s wars and that precisely accused Biden of having put the world on the brink of nuclear war has opted for this approach, but coherence has never been the New York millionaire’s strong point.
Furthermore, this isolationist message was combined with the slogan “peace through strength,” which was intended to stage the return of the United States as the leading international power, something it seemed to have renounced in recent years. The same man who tried to leave NATO in his previous mandate, according to what he claimed John Boltonhis then National Security Advisor and now disgraced by Trumpism, now asks for million-dollar investments in defense, creates a War Department, bombs Iran, exerts pressure on Israel and threatens Russia with Tomahawk.
It remains to be seen how Zelensky, who has previously criticized Trump’s efforts to reintegrate Putin into diplomatic normality, will have taken the call. The Ukrainian leader has traveled to Washington in the hope of leaving with a closed agreement on the sale of arms and it does not seem that it will be possible now. Yes, you can get friendly treatment, a subsequent press conference in which Trump shows him all his support and a lot of words of encouragement. Hardly, nothing more until Putin decides on the invitation.
New pulse to the European Union
The fact that the meeting is taking place in Budapest is also a gesture of contempt by Trump towards his European partners. American diplomacy must know that Putin is prohibited from entering the territory of the European Union, in addition to the fact that he is under a search and arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. The second, in reality, does not matter to the United States, since it does not recognize the authority of said court, but the first, if there has not been consensus, can have consequences.
Until now, European countries have accepted American ascendancy without question and probably feel that they do not deserve such a gesture: they have promised to increase their defense spending, they have reached an agreement on tariffs that is not beneficial to them, they have played a role in the propaganda events of the White House and Sharm el Sheikh. They have remained silent every time Trump insulted Biden, with whom they have all maintained very cordial relations, and they have not spoken out regarding the authoritarian drift that is being seen in North American domestic politics.
All this, we have already said, without getting much in return. It is understandable that Orbán has offered himself in person to skip the sanctions that the other members have approved.and that puts Hungary in an even more uncomfortable position within the Union. It remains to be seen what position Brussels takes if the visit is confirmed. It is to be expected that they will be “deeply concerned” about this.
Be that as it may, the important thing is that right now military intelligence continues to flow from the United States to Ukraine and that Washington is considering the possibility of authorizing attacks with its own weapons on energy plants, air bases and the enormous drone factory in Alábuga, in Tatarstan. Even if there was no agreement on the Tomahawks, there is an agreement on the ERAMs, also long-range missiles that can attack the heart of Russia. It’s Trump’s way of telling Putin: “Either you make a deal or this is what awaits you.” Let’s see how the Russian leader responds.