Trump’s support propels Milei to a resounding victory and consolidates right-wing populism in South America

Ten months later, Donald Trump He put these wishes into practice with the announcement of aid worth more than 20 billion dollars to Argentina… only if the ultra-liberal won the legislative elections.

And he won them. With a forcefulness that can only be explained precisely by the last minute support from the White House. He won throughout the country, with a percentage greater than 40% of the votes, and he won, above all, in the city of Buenos Aires, with a result equal to that of the Peronists of Fuerza Patria in the entire province. This result is especially symbolic if one takes into account that, just two months ago, La Libertad Avanza, the party founded by Javier Milei, took a huge hit in the regional elections.

Victory does not admit discussion and leaves the president very close to the absolute majority. In the absence of the final details of the count and the consequent distribution of seats, Milei will have the support of 92 of its own deputies plus, predictably, the 25 of the coalition of Mauricio Macriwho ran in alliance with the president in a good part of the constituencies. That would make a total of 117 seats in Congress out of 257, that is, only 12 short of the absolute majority, which it can achieve thanks to the different local and centrist parties that obtained representation.

The disaster of the Peronists, who remain at 79 seats and only get 31 of the 127 that were renewed in this election, means that Congress’s blockade on Milei’s policies can finally be lifted. It will be difficult for the opposition to consistently achieve a majority that stops government reforms, exactly what has been happening until now… and what Donald Trump wanted to avoid with his announced aid package.

Avoid another Bolsonaro case

The triumph of La Libertad Avanza consolidates a project that seemed to be failing in recent months, with the rising inflation and unemployment. Milei has always attributed the country’s economic situation to the impossibility of carrying out the measures that are really needed. Now, he will be able to do so with some ease and it will be possible to fairly measure the extent to which he is capable of lifting Argentina out of economic ruin, as he has promised so many times.

Besides, for the populist right, it is a gigantic victory. The only recent precedent of a leader aligned with Trumpist theses – although, strictly speaking, Milei is a liberal who defines himself as an anarcho-capitalist while MAGA is a protectionist movement – is the Brazilian one. Jair Bolsonarowho could not consolidate his project when he lost the elections after his first term. Bolsonaro is currently awaiting trial for inciting a coup d’état, for not recognizing the victory of Lula da Silva in 2022 and encourage his supporters to take to the streets of Brasilia.

Milei, on the other hand, will not only be able to enjoy two relatively peaceful yearsbut it has been shown that American support has been decisive and may continue to be so in the coming years. It is difficult to explain the rebound in the last week, when by law surveys could no longer be published, without the promises of support from Donald Trump, Scott Bessent and the US Administration in general, with the exception of the Secretary of Agriculture, Brook Rollins, who accused Argentine meat of being unsafe to please the annoying livestock sector in the United States.

20,000 million to breathe

And Trump’s support, estimated, as we said, at more than 20 billion dollars between direct aid, currency purchases and currency exchange, has caused a small earthquake in the powerful American agricultural industry. The field, generally devoted to Republicans and especially to the protectionist promises of MAGA, had massively supported Trump in the 2024 elections and now sees how a direct competitor receives money taken from their taxes.

Even so, the US president has insisted several times in recent days on the need to save the Argentine economy no matter what. An economy and a country, which, according to him, are “dying.” Javier Milei is a personal friend of Trump, he received him at the White House in the middle of the pre-campaign and has always been sympathetic to his policies, even more so at a time when the United States has declared war – for now, only diplomatic – on three countries with left-wing governments: Brazil, Colombia and, above all, Venezuela.

Without a doubt, Argentina will also benefit from these disputes, becoming the region’s priority economic partner. The voter has taken this into account, although one could also say that, apart from supporting Milei, what he has done is suspend his protest, since participation has remained below 70%something that had never happened in a legislative or presidential election since the end of the military dictatorship.

Peronist reflection necessary

Precisely the low participation has been Peronism’s main criticism of Milei’s victory. The Justicialists ignore, of course, that they have been the biggest losers, that is, that it is the hundreds of thousands of voters who on other occasions have supported their project who have stayed at home this time. Fuerza Patria and its various allies not only lose control of Congress, but they barely get six of the twenty-four senatorial positions that were renewed in these elections.

However, it is likely that they can still block certain measures in the Lower House, since the balance is almost complete thanks to their results for 2023 and, above all, 2021, which are still dragging on. The third ways, as in Congress, will be decisive. In any case, Peronism will have to do something beyond constantly appealing to “the homeland” if it wants to be a real alternative in 2027. His determination not to distance himself from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner It will take its toll as long as the former president continues serving a house sentence.

Meanwhile, Milei and her people celebrate with euphoria and announce “a new Argentina”. It is not known how many there are. The project that began in 2021 in a diffuse manner in the media has been consolidated despite the first corruption scandals and legislative difficulties. The economy, and Trump and Milei know this, will be what defines the continuity of the ultraliberal project. Effective, it seems that it will not be lacking.