Occupied Jerusalem- The Israeli political arena is witnessing a clear state of alignment and repositioning, in light of the slow disintegration that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is experiencing, and with the growing general conviction that the country is heading towards early elections in mid-2026.
Recent opinion polls indicate that the Likud Party has regained some of its electoral strength, but it is still unable to secure a majority that would enable it to form a new government.
At a time when the current coalition is facing a decline in cohesion and popularity due to the Haredi conscription law, the budget crisis for the year 2026, and amendments to the judicial system, the opposition parties are seeking to exploit this weakness by building broad alliances that bring together the camps of the center, the left, and the traditional right.
These moves aim to form a political front capable of achieving a Jewish party majority that will end the rule of the extreme right, and return the political scene to a more “moderate” path, from the point of view of some Israeli analyses.
While the pace of consultations and communications between party leaders is accelerating, it appears that the next stage, according to Israeli readings, will be characterized by intense coalition struggles that will pave the way for fateful elections that may redraw the political map of Israel.
Opposition advances
An Israeli public opinion poll, the results of which were published on Thursday evening, showed that the Likud Party led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of committing war crimes in Gaza – still leads the political scene, as it would obtain 27 seats if the elections were held today, while a joint Arab list emerges as a fourth force with 11 seats, indicative of a relative change in the map of the party blocs. inside Israel.
The poll was conducted for the Israeli Channel 12 by the Midgam Institute headed by Manu Giva, via the Internet and by telephone, and included a representative sample of 501 people, with a maximum error rate of 4.4%.
According to the results, the parties in the government coalition led by Netanyahu continue to decline, with their strength stopping at only 51 seats, while the opposition parties and the traditional right win 59 seats, without having a sufficient majority to form a stable Jewish government. As for the Arab parties, they will remain at around 10 seats if they run in the elections separately.
In details of the results, the Likud Party maintains the lead with 27 seats, followed by the new party of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with 21 seats, then the “Democrats” party led by Yair Golan with 13 seats.
As for the “There is a Future” parties headed by Yair Lapid, “Shas” led by Aryeh Deri, and “Israel Our Home” led by Avigdor Lieberman, each of them won 9 seats, while Itamar Ben Gvir and his “Jewish Greatness” party won 8 seats.
As for the “Yashar-Mustaqim” party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and the “United Torah Judaism” party, each won 7 seats, while the Front, the Arab Front for Change, and the United List won 5 seats each. In contrast, “Blue and White” led by Benny Gantz, and “Religious Zionism” led by Bezalel Smotrich, failed to pass the electoral threshold.
Netanyahu backed down
In another scenario included in the survey, which includes the participation of a joint Arab list and an alliance between the parties of Ben Gvir and Smotrich, the results showed a change in the party balance:
- Likud’s strength remains constant at 27 seats.
- While Bennett gets 20.
- The Democrats come third with 12.
- The Joint Arab List ranked fourth with 11 seats.
- Followed by the extreme religious right list with 9 seats.
As for the parties of Lapid, Deri, and Lieberman, they remain stable at 9 seats each, while “United Torah Judaism” and “Ya’shar” each win 7 seats, while parties such as “Blue and White” and “Melomenikim” (Army Reserves) remain below the electoral threshold.
As for the leadership question, Netanyahu maintained a relative superiority over his rivals, as 39% of respondents considered him most suitable to head the government, compared to 37% in favor of Naftali Bennett, and 26% for Yair Lapid.
These numbers show a noticeable decline in public confidence in Netanyahu compared to before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, when he had support of more than 50% of respondents in the polls.
“Netanyahu’s government is responsible.” Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid says that Israel is experiencing the most dangerous political crisis in its history. What are the reasons? #Infograph pic.twitter.com/XLFOHGAZIs
– Al Jazeera Channel (@AJArabic) October 21, 2025
The right and the opposition
Neither Lapid nor Gantz, but Bennett alone, came close to actually removing Netanyahu politically, before the Israeli military operation “Rising Lion” against Iran on June 13 completely changed the course of the scene.
Dr. Menachem Lazar, a pollster at Maariv newspaper, says that the attack on Iran brought Likud back to life after a long period of stagnation, explaining that the party jumped from about 20 to 27 seats within a few months.
Lazar points out that on June 11, Bennett was ahead of Likud by a margin of 6 seats (27 versus 21), and this decline was reinforced in August due to Gadi Eisenkot’s entry into the race, and the return of “religious Zionism” to the political arena in opinion polls, but Likud regained its momentum since September and continued to rise until the current October, when the equation was reversed and it returned to the lead.
Lazar believes that Likud’s gains come mainly from within the far-right bloc, not from the transfer of votes from the opposition camp, as the party map is still balanced and fragile, as the far-right Orthodox bloc does not exceed 51 seats, and the Jewish opposition, in turn, is unable to form a majority without the Arab parties.
Lazar adds that Likud and Bennett’s party remain vulnerable to political fluctuations, while parties such as “Israel Our Home” led by Lieberman and “The Democrats” led by Golan appear more stable.
He concludes by saying, “The small Zionist parties may decide the future of the political scene. The bloc that succeeds in unifying its ranks will be the most capable of forming the next government.”
Leadership vacuum
Under the title “Without recognizing the leadership vacuum, there will be no change,” researcher and lecturer in Jewish studies, Yair Assouline, wrote in the newspaper “Haaretz” a scathing critical article in which he addressed the crisis of leadership that Israel is experiencing, which has clearly emerged since the Al-Aqsa flood operation and during the ongoing war on Gaza.
Assouline believes that what appears to be an end to the war is only a temporary illusion, as “nothing has actually ended,” he says, adding that the reality in Gaza has not fundamentally changed, and that Hamas still maintains control.
With talk of new parliamentary elections approaching, he believes that Israel is facing a deep and final leadership vacuum that includes all colors of the political spectrum without exception. The writer describes the current government as “the most failed and rotten in Israel’s history,” considering that the absence of leadership is the essence of its crisis.
But at the same time, he stresses that the problem is not limited to the government alone, as the opposition in turn suffers from intellectual atrophy and a lack of vision, saying, “We have not heard for years any real voice or idea capable of moving Israeli society, or uniting it around a new vision.”
The current leaders – as he describes them – “lack deep thought and the ability to ask fundamental questions that redefine the meaning of leadership and society in times of crises and transformations,” noting that “change in Israel will not start from policies or electoral programs,” but from honesty and intellectual courage. Only in this way can real change be born, even if we do not yet know who will lead it.