Lagarde goes further, saying that interruptions in the region’s energy supply could take years rather than months. Regarding the damage caused, it is past the point of no return. Worse: the risks related to the War in Iran appear to be being underestimated. By whom? It can be understood that Lagarde is referring to governments, community institutions, companies, banks, and the various strategic alliances spread across the globe.
“We are faced with a real shock… probably beyond what we can imagine at this moment.” There is no hint of optimism here.
The worst thing, says Lagarde, is that the conflict catches the Euro economies with much less budgetary margin than they had in 2022 and 2023.
Perhaps here it is worth making an honorable mention. Portugal closed the year 2025 with a surplus of 0.7% of GDP, well above the 0.3% that the Government had announced. The number could have been above 1% without extraordinary expenses, such as support for Ukraine, supplements for pensioners and PRR.
This conflict and these risks could have caught us in worse years when it comes to bills. In other words, with less cushion than we have now. Reason for rejoicing? Calm. The war and what the International Energy Agency calls “the biggest energy shock of all time” finds us still trying to recover from a train of storms that decimated thousands of homes and economic agents in various regions of the country, especially in the Center.
In short, a year 2026 that would already be difficult has now become unpredictable. And, without a doubt, worthy of Christine Lagarde’s pessimism.
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