It is the only time in the 26-year-old’s last 10 major appearances that he has not reached at least the round of 16. It is exceptionally reliable and only getting better.
De Minaur is a noticeably different player this summer, but he also exudes the confidence that comes when you spend most of the last two years in the top 10 and lead the tour behind victories on hard courts last year.
De Minaur improved in every match at the Australian Open.Credit: AP
His much-maligned delivery is the latest weapon — yes, weapon — in his artillery. If you don’t believe that, ask Bublík and Frances Tiafoe, who had all sorts of problems getting it back.
A key development is that de Minaur is winning more vital rallies, which also last from zero to four shots, and is not relying on crushing opponents into the ground. He won this metric against both Tiafoe and Bublik, both of whom de Minaur’s doubters believed should have had too much power for him.
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As he said after knocking out Hamad Medjedovic, another ball-crusher, in the second round (where he also won an 0-4 rally): “I’m No. 6 in the world right now, right? I got there because I can play some ball too.”
De Minaur’s record against top-10 foes, especially at majors, understandably gives people pause.
He lost 16 straight matches with the company before defeating Taylor Fritz at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin in November. It doubled as de Minaur’s first win in this exclusive event in the second year he qualified for it and was another injection of confidence.
De Minaur’s win over Bublik was only his second over a top 10 player at a Grand Slam against 10 losses, so there is more to do.
There is no better chance to do that than against world number one and six-time Grand Slam champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The lid, let alone the glass ceiling, will be gone if he wins.
But critics will surely be waiting to pounce on him if he doesn’t.
De Minaur is serving well at this year’s Open.Credit: Getty Images
There’s a middle ground: de Minaur is losing, but he’s competitive – more competitive than he was against Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner in two of his biggest matches at Melbourne Park over the years.
Asked after Bublík’s victory what he would say to people to give them optimism, it will be the seventh lucky in the big quarter-finals, de Minaur rightly replied that it was not his job, preferring to let his tennis do the talking.
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His tennis has done a lot lately – and he’s saying all the right things.
It remains to be seen whether de Minaur can keep the Australian and his hopes of ending a 50-year men’s title reign alive. But we should have stopped telling him what he was a long time ago can’t do and should start thinking about what he he could.
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