Portugal today faces one of its most persistent and least debated problems: the structural fragility of its export model. At a time when the international context is becoming more unstable, the signs are clear and worrying. Portuguese exports slow down, lose relative weight and reveal limitations that the country continues to postpone facing.
The most recent data shows that Portugal remained in the middle of the table, as the 15th largest exporter from the European Union to the United States, but with a significant drop of 13.4% in sales to that market. More than a number, this decline reflects a reality: our ability to compete externally remains vulnerable to external shocks and international uncertainties, such as trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts.
The beginning of 2026 reinforced this concern. Between internal storms and the impact of the escalation in the Middle East, with repercussions on energy prices and logistics chains, the Brazilian economy entered a period of slowdown. The GDP contraction in the first quarter, even if slight, is a warning sign for an economy that depends heavily on abroad, but has failed to structure a solid and resilient export model.
But it would be a mistake to attribute everything to the international context. The truth is that Portugal exports little value because it exports on a small scale. Our business fabric remains excessively fragmented, based on thousands of small companies with reduced internationalization capacity. This reality limits productivity, reduces margins and prevents the consolidation of competitive positions in foreign markets.
And this has very concrete consequences for the day-to-day life of the country. Fewer exports mean less wealth created, less investment and less ability to pay better wages. This translates into an economy that grows below its potential, less creation of qualified jobs and greater dependence on more volatile sectors, such as tourism. When exports are unable to compensate for external shocks, it is families and companies that directly feel this impact, whether through loss of income, rising prices or economic instability.
Unlike other European economies, Portugal does not have a sufficient number of medium-sized companies capable of growing, innovating and leading exports. Between large companies and the universe of micro and small companies, there is a vacuum that penalizes the general performance of the economy. When many export little, the country exports less than it could and grows less than it needs.
Added to this is a factor that can no longer be ignored: the weight of taxation. In a context of uncertainty and global competition, Portugal maintains a tax burden that discourages company growth and penalizes those who want to gain scale. Instead of promoting consolidation and competitiveness, the system continues to favor fragmentation.
The result is in sight. Exports with less weight in GDP, greater exposure to external shocks and a more vulnerable economy. In a changing world, marked by geopolitical tensions, reconfiguration of value chains and greater international competition, this weakness is not just an economic problem. It is a risk to the country’s sustained growth.
Portugal needs to change. Exporting more is not enough. It is necessary to export better, with more value and a larger business size. This requires policies that encourage business growth, reduce fiscal obstacles and truly focus on productivity and innovation.
Because, in the end, the question is simple: either the country gains scale and competitiveness, or it will continue to depend on external cycles that it cannot control. And this is a dependence that Portugal can no longer afford to maintain.
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