This Sunday’s local elections allow us to draw several conclusions, even though at the closing time of this edition (00:30 on Monday) we still did not have the final numbers. I would like to highlight five conclusions, due to the reconfiguration of the political map and the trends they reveal.
The first is that the AD Government emerged strengthened from these local elections, although it cannot be said that they were a test for the Executive led by Luís Montenegro. The PSD, alone or in coalition with the CDS-PP and the Liberal Initiative, won the largest number of chambers nationally, including the five largest in the country: Lisbon, Porto, Gaia, Sintra and Cascais. They should join these other important cities such as Braga and Oeiras (where the PSD supported Isaltino). The party managed to recover municipal ground, especially in large urban centers, which gives the Government a boost. The CDS managed to remain as the fourth force at local level, ahead of Chega, which is no small feat.
The second conclusion is that the PS is no longer the party with the most votes in local councils, having lost crucial battles in Lisbon and Porto and seeing its weight decrease at a territorial level. At a time when the country appears to have made a turn to the right, the loss of several relevant chambers indicates an increased difficulty in mobilization after the defeat in the last legislative elections. To his credit, José Luís Carneiro has the fact that he was forced to play in difficult circumstances, a few months after taking over the leadership and with candidates who were chosen by his predecessor. In a way, Carneiro demonstrated that the PS is alive and is a force with weight at national level; but he did not achieve several of the objectives he set, starting with maintaining the presidency of the National Association of Municipalities and winning in Lisbon and Porto.
The third is that Chega was established as an effective force at local level, although it was unable to put an end to bipartisanship and did not obtain the dozens of chambers that, at a certain point, were desired. Furthermore, André Ventura’s party demonstrated that it is building solid party structures at the local level. He won chambers such as Montijo and Albufeira and elected throughout the country. This result confirms that Chega has gained expression in local power.
The fourth is the erosion of the CDU, which for decades has been the third force at the municipal level. The coalition led by Paulo Raimundo was unable to maintain the 19 municipalities it won in 2021, losing strongholds such as Grândola, but managed to fall less than many anticipated.
The fifth and final conclusion is the disappearance of the Bloco de Esquerda as an effective force at the municipal level. At closing time, Mariana Mortágua’s party had obtained just 21 thousand votes, compared to 87 thousand four years ago. This number does not include the votes it received in Lisbon, in the coalition with PS, PAN and Livre, but it still reveals a downward trend. The absence of leader Mariana Mortágua during the campaign, as she was detained in Israel after participating in a flotilla to Gaza, generated internal and external criticism and was not unrelated to this result.