France is experiencing a very serious political crisis. The dissolution of the National Assembly, decided on June 9, 2024 by President Emmanuel Macron, was a gamble that surprised the political class and turned out to be wrong. Since then, four prime ministers have come to power. The last, Sébastien Lecornu, formed a government on Sunday night and resigned the following morning. An absolute record, which clearly shows the impasse in which the country finds itself.
The political elites are grouped into two extreme camps: Marine Le Pen’s party and a coalition of more or less radical left-wing forces, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon as its leading figure. The little that remains, the center, is fragmented around half a dozen politicians who cannot understand each other. Several of these personalities, as well as Le Pen and Mélenchon, are convinced that they will be able to succeed Macron as head of State. They want Macron to resign as president of the Republic without delay. Officially, his second term should end in May 2027. Now, due to the severity of the crisis, even his political allies are already claiming that the solution to the impasse would involve the president’s early departure from power.
I don’t believe that will happen. Macron may not want to recognize that his popularity runs through the streets of bitterness. This week’s poll concludes that only 14% of French people support his policy. It’s a catastrophic percentage. Macron believes, however, that he has the necessary constitutional legitimacy to continue.
In a situation of deep crisis like the current one, and in the event that Macron once again opts, in the near future, for early parliamentary elections, it would be possible that Marine Le Pen’s extreme right could obtain the largest number of deputies. His party appears, to a significant part of the electorate, as more stable than the left, which is a fragile collage of diverse political opinions.
In any case, whether in one case or the other – early presidential elections or new parliamentary elections – France is on the verge of falling into a pit of profound chaos, caught between two ultra-radical poles. This time, the risk is very serious. The greatest probability is that France, one of the two pillars of the European Union, will be led by a radical, ultranationalist party, hostile to the European project, xenophobic and ideologically close to Vladimir Putin.
The other pillar of Europe is Germany. Friedrich Merz, chancellor since May, is in a constant decline in public opinion. Only 26% of voters believe in their ability to solve the problems considered most worrying: the cost of living, housing, immigration and economic stagnation. The German economy contracted in 2023 and 2024, with sectors such as construction and industry falling back to levels seen in the mid-2000s. The engine of the economy, the automotive industry, is around a third below its peak 15 years ago and has returned to levels close to those of the mid-2000s, reflecting a loss of competitiveness and profound structural changes in the sector.
In a recent discussion with German analysts, I was told that the unpopularity of Merz and his coalition is paving the way for the far right to power in 2029 or even earlier. This year, the AfD (Alternative for Germany, a party led by nostalgic Nazis) came in second place, with almost 21% of the votes. The growing discontent of citizens, the competition with the Chinese economy, the tariffs and restrictions imposed by the Americans, the spending on aid to Ukraine, the blatant support for right-wing German extremists given by Donald Trump, who sees in the AfD a way to seriously undermine European unity, the growing propaganda against foreigners residing in Germany, all these are factors that reinforce the electoral base of this racist and Nazi-inspired party. Without forgetting that the AfD maintains privileged relations with the Kremlin.
The crossroads at which both France now and Germany find themselves in the future represent two enormous challenges for the survival of the EU. They are incomparably more worrying than the consequences of Brexit or the sabotage of Hungarian Viktor Orbán and Slovakian Robert Fico. They come at a time when the EU is facing a series of existential problems of external origin.
External enemies are known. Fear and giving in are the worst responses that can be given to them. Enemies and adversaries must be dealt with with great strategic skill and a strengthened union, only achievable if EU leaders are able to explain and prove to citizens the importance of European unity and cohesion.
The international scene is much bigger than the US, Russia or China. The expansion of agreements with Japan, Canada, Mercosur, the African continent and ASEAN should receive priority attention. This list does not seek to exclude other partners, it only mentions some especially important ones.
The future also requires resolutely limiting excessive dependence on the outside in the areas of defense, technologies, digital platforms, energy and raw materials essential for the energy transition. Removing bureaucracy, innovating and promoting the complementarity of European economies is essential. All this must be done while combating extremism. Thinking that extremists will play by democratic rules once they come to power is a dangerous illusion. Denouncing this fiction is now the urgent priority in France, and the constant priority in all Member States, Portugal included.
International security advisor.
Former UN Deputy Secretary-General