The economy of Mexico registered a annual contraction of 0.6% in September 2025according to the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) of the Inegi.
With this, the country marks its second consecutive month in negative territory, confirming the slowdown in national growth after a first half of weak progress.
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In monthly comparison, the Global Economic Activity Indicator (GAE) would have shown a slight increase of 0.1%suggesting a temporary pause in the downward trend observed since August.
However, specialists warn that risks persist due to persistent inflation, high interest rates and global economic weakness.
The deterioration comes mainly from the secondary sector, which brings together the manufacturing, construction, mining and power generationwith aan annual drop of 3%accumulating two months with consecutive losses.
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In contrast, the tertiary sector, engine of employment and consumptionrecorded a modest 0.8% annual growthdriven by the financial services, transportation and retail.
“It is very likely that in the third quarter the GDP will have registered a contraction,” he warned. Gabriela Siller Pagazadirector of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero Base.
“Based on the IGAE data and the IOAE estimatesthe GDP for the third quarter would show a quarterly drop of 0.7% and an annual drop of 0.4%the first since the beginning of 2021. Even so, in the first nine months of 2025 the product would accumulate a 0.5% growth compared to the same period in 2024,” he pointed out.