Global trade reached “historic highs” in 2025, with year-on-year growth of 6.5%, driven by goods related to artificial intelligence (AI), despite the increase in US tariffs, according to Mckinsey & Company.
According to the report “Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2026 update”, published this Wednesday, 25th, by the consultancy, the rise of artificial intelligence and the evolution of China’s role are redefining the commercial map for blocks that are increasingly geopolitically aligned.
The “main driver” of trade last year was investment in infrastructure for AI, explained in a note from the consultant on the report, which details that the exchange of specialized hardware grew by 40% and that this increase in demand for technological components represented a third of all growth in world trade.
Technological demand has mainly benefited production centers in Taiwan and South Korea, which supply semiconductors, servers and network equipment; while the global expansion of data centers has consolidated the United States as the main driver of demand for these goods.
Another key factor, according to the analysis, is the reorganization of the geopolitical scenario, as China has accelerated its transition to consolidate itself as the “factory of factories” in the face of new restrictions on access to the North American market due to the application of customs duties.
Thus, bilateral trade between China and the United States decreased by 30%, something in the order of 165 billion dollars (142.21 billion euros).
McKinsey explains that, for the first time since 2019, Chinese exports of final consumer products decreased, while foreign sales of intermediate and capital goods increased by more than US$175 billion.
The report warns that the European Union (EU) faces a scenario of competitive pressure, marked by the increase in Chinese imports and the impact of new tariffs in the United States, stating that the proof is the fact that the automotive sector was the most affected in 2025, with a drop of US$ 22 billion (18.96 billion euros) in the joint trade balance with the USA and China.
European vehicle exports to the United States decreased by 17% in 2025, while exports to China fell by more than 30%, a situation that is accentuated by competition from electric vehicles manufactured in China and which already represent 15% of total electric vehicle sales in the EU.
Leave a Reply