Ankara- Tomorrow, Saturday, the city of Istanbul will host a high-level meeting headed by the Afghan Minister of Defense, Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob Mujahid, and the Pakistani Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, to discuss the mechanisms for implementing the ceasefire agreement between the two countries, which was reached with Turkish-Qatari mediation, amid aspirations for a pivotal Turkish role in stabilizing the calm between the two sides.
This diplomatic move comes after bloody border confrontations, the most violent since 2021, resulting in dozens of deaths and the closure of crossings, which doubled the severity of the humanitarian and commercial crisis on both sides of the border.
According to informed Turkish sources, the first session of the joint technical committee will focus on a long-term road map that guarantees the continuity of the ceasefire, in addition to discussing the outstanding controversial issues, most notably combating armed groups, securing the common border, and dealing with the refugee file.
It is expected that the two sides will discuss in the meeting a field monitoring mechanism for rapid action in the event of any violations, in addition to a preliminary understanding on reopening the crossings and resuming commercial and civil movement.
Background of escalation and truce
Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have witnessed a rapid escalation in recent months, with accusations being exchanged of supporting armed groups operating across the border, which sparked a series of violent clashes, especially in the vicinity of the Torkham and Chaman crossings.
The repeated confrontations resulted in deaths and injuries on both sides, and the repeated closure of vital crossings, which inflicted heavy economic losses on the bilateral trade movement.
Tension reached its peak in early October, when fierce fighting broke out in which Pakistani forces used artillery and fighter jets, in the most dangerous confrontation of its kind since the Taliban took power in Kabul in 2021.
In the face of this escalation, several regional parties moved to mediate, as the efforts of Qatar, Turkey, and China led to direct negotiations in Doha between the two sides, and the talks resulted in reaching an agreement for an immediate ceasefire, and resorting to dialogue as a path to contain the tension.
According to Pakistani official sources, the agreement included a commitment to a comprehensive truce and a complete cessation of clashes and military operations, in exchange for an Afghan pledge not to allow its territory to be used by groups hostile to Islamabad, while Pakistan committed to respecting Afghan air sovereignty.
Türkiye’s role and interests
Turkey has emerged as an active party in the mediation efforts between Kabul and Islamabad in recent weeks, alongside Qatar, as Ankara played a pivotal role in bringing views closer and preparing the ground for an agreement. Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin participated in the Doha negotiations, which lasted 14 continuous hours and led to a ceasefire agreement.
Turkey is strengthening its regional presence in both Afghanistan and Pakistan through a network of intertwined political, economic and military interests, and although Ankara does not officially recognize the Afghan government, it has kept its embassy in Kabul open since 2021, giving it a continuous diplomatic foothold, which it has strengthened by regular meetings with the movement’s leaders and hosting government officials in Ankara during the past months.
On the economic level, the volume of trade exchange between Ankara and Kabul reached about $287 million in 2023, and Turkish companies are seeking to expand their investments in the fields of transportation, energy, and mining, the most prominent of which was their participation in implementing the second phase of the Kajaki hydroelectric dam in the south of the country, with an investment estimated at $160 million.
As for Pakistan, it has a comprehensive strategic partnership with Ankara, which culminated early this year in the signing of 24 agreements and memorandums of understanding that included the defense, energy, trade and technology sectors, during the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Islamabad and his meeting with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif.
Cooperation between the two countries also witnesses coordination in sensitive regional files, as Ankara supports Islamabad’s position on the Kashmir issue, and Turkey also enjoys Pakistani support in the Northern Cyprus issue. Militarily, Turkey is the second largest arms supplier to Pakistan after China, as Islamabad acquired about 10% of Ankara’s defense exports between 2020 and 2024.
Regional coordination
Political analyst Taha Odeh Oglu believes that Turkey has strong capabilities to play a pivotal role in stabilizing the ceasefire between Afghanistan and Pakistan, thanks to its good relations with both parties and its record of regional mediations, most recently in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
However, in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, he points out that this role, despite its importance, cannot be played by Ankara alone in the long term, in light of the complexities of the regional and international scenes surrounding both countries.
Oglu points out that the success of the Turkish role depends on expanding coordination with regional and international powers, such as Qatar, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, to ensure the formulation of a permanent and not a temporary understanding. He also highlights the intelligence dimension in the Turkish move, explaining that Ankara combines the tools of diplomacy and security capabilities, which gives it flexibility in managing mediation files.
He believes that the balance of Turkey’s relations with both Kabul and Islamabad, in addition to the United States’ welcoming of Ankara’s role in this file, strengthens its position as a potential mediator in the upcoming negotiations, provided that this mediation is translated into practical mechanisms to monitor the ceasefire and support the path of sustainable dialogue between the two sides.
Catalytic role
For his part, Ahmed Zia Goklab, a researcher at the Todbam Center for Turkish Foreign Policy Studies, believes that Turkey has the ability to combine its diplomatic tools and security channels to contribute to shaping the course of the process.
The researcher added, in his interview with Al Jazeera Net, that Ankara is emerging as a “catalytic” actor at this stage, by seeking to establish trust between the two parties, keeping communication channels open, and its readiness to host subsequent meetings to follow up on the agreement.
But at the same time, he confirms that the sustainability of the truce goes beyond the limits of the Turkish role, as it depends on the internal balances in both Kabul and Islamabad, and on complex regional interactions that include parties, such as China, Iran, the United States, and Qatar.
Goklab believes that Turkey’s ability to mediate in this multilateral scene gives it an important facilitating position, but achieving lasting peace remains dependent on building an effective international mechanism to monitor the agreement, noting that the Turkish move constitutes a “fundamental pillar” in this path, but it is not sufficient alone to ensure a sustainable settlement without broad regional cooperation.