There has been no shortage of analysts or experts on the networks to flesh out this thesis. The latest effort in this regard comes from James Thorne, a market analyst at Canadian wealth manager Wellignton-Altus. Says Thorne (not to be confused with the Republican elected from Maine to the House of Representatives in 2020) that Trump was not caught by surprise by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, nor by the rise in fuel prices for North American citizens.
“For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the critical point where energy, naval power and political will intersect. (…) What is new, in this war with Iran, is that the United States, with Donald Trump, chose not to rush to ‘solve’ the problem.” For what? To, says Thorne, take to the extreme the lesson that Europeans should not, cannot, and will not take for granted, as they have done, that American missiles, planes, and warships will always keep things going. Whether in the Strait of Hormuz or elsewhere on the globe. And he concludes: if Trump acted quickly and forcefully in the strait, the European semi-powers “would breathe a sigh of relief and soon return to business as usual”.
This analysis by Thorne — and similar ones that emerged after previous erratic, contradictory or insulting statements by the US president — is based on a “certainty” that is far from being: that the initiative, in this war, still belongs to the Americans. It is not clear that this is so. American forces are, at this point, more responding to Iran’s strategy than determining what is happening on the ground.
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