When the president of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on the morning of Monday the 23rd that he would pause the bombings against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days to maintain conversations for de-escalationskepticism spread. Tehran accused him of using a THIRD to calm the markets with hopes of peace while preparing a new offensive.
There were reasons for surprise. Trump had given an ultimatum to the ayatollah regime on Saturday, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under threat of destroying Iranian power plants. But he stopped the countdown and postponed his threat to give time for dialogue until Friday. By the time the deadline is up, your reinforcements will be in the area.
Although the military deployment for Operation ‘Epic Fury’ amounts to more than 50,000 US troops, the ability of the Iranians to keep the strait closed despite the intense bombing has forced the Central Command (CENTCOM) to change strategy. The Pentagon thus ordered 10 days ago to mobilize an expeditionary force stationed in Japan.
And it will be precisely on Friday when the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli con 2.500 marines on board reach the gulf of omanthe entrance to the Persian Gulf that crosses the Strait of Hormuz. You will arrive escorted by the cruise ship USS New Orleans and will provide Osprey helicopters, amphibious vehicles and F-35 Lightning II and AV-8 Harrier fighters.
They are not the only troops that join the theater of war. According to Fox Newshave been registered at least six flights from the base of Fort Bragg in North Carolina to US bases in the Middle East. There is the 82nd Airborne Divisionwhich has up to 3,000 paratroopers capable of deploying as a Rapid Response Force.
Public flight records have allowed specialized accounts trace at least until 35 flights of military transport aircraft C-17 Globemaster III from US bases to Israel y Jordan. They would be special forces: members of the Delta Forcelos Navy SEAL, Rangers of the Army and the 5th Group of Forces Aerotransportadas.
Soldiers of the elite American unit Delta Force.
Reuters
Furthermore, and based on the origin of the flights, the 621 Contingency Response Wing of the Air Force would join the deployment. This is a detachment specialized in secure and repair runwaysproviding all the logistics to refuel and rearm helicopters and aircraft during operations.
Finally, and if the conflict continues, a new wave of reinforcements is on the way. He amphibian group of USS Boxer y the 11th Expeditionary Unit Marines They move from the West Coast along with the ships USS Portland y USS Comstockwith another 2,500 Marines and nearly 4,000 troops in total.
Pressure or total assault?
The hypotheses are reduced to two. Trump could have assembled this powerful contingent of elite forces to intimidate Iran and force a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Or the decision could already be made, with a coup that tries to establish bridgeheads on coasts and islands. This would include Jarkthe jewel in Iran’s oil crown.
This small island in the northern Persian Gulf processes 90% of Iran’s crude oil, and although Trump ordered bombing it on March 14, he was careful “not to damage the pipelines,” in his own words. Destroying the Jark refinery facility would immensely aggravate the oil crisis that the world suffers from the strangulation of Hormuz.
That is why the possibility of American troops trying to occupy the island and use her as a hostage against Tehran. He New York Times described what an operation of this nature could be like. The first to disembark should be the marinesaccompanied by engineers who could repair the landing strips damaged in the bombing.
A formation of the Navy Seals, an elite brigade of the US Army.
With the island’s infrastructure in their possession, the planes Lockheed C-130 Hercules could begin carrying material and supplies, as well as reinforcements. It would be time to deploy paratroopers as fresh troops for the marineswhile they entrench their positions on the island and turn it into bridgehead of the offensive.
A second scenario poses a night paratrooper raidbut the military sources consulted by the media see it as more unlikely. They cannot carry heavy arsenal with them, such as armored vehiclesso they would be exposed to Iranian retaliation from the coast and from the defenses that still exist in Jark.
However, it is not so obvious that losing the island would be a devastating blow for the regime. During the war with Iraq, the attacks of February and March 1988 severely affected the loading docks. The Islamic Republic then moved the export of crude oil to other oil terminals in the country and continued exporting.
Trump could then opt for the most difficult thing: order forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuza natural fortress that the Iranians have reinforced with rock-cut fortifications and sea mines. As much as the bunker-buster bombs have softened the resistance, experts agree that it would be “a bloodbath.”
‘Hunt and destroy’
The presence of the special forces however poses another typology of war. The Delta Force are the same as They captured Nicolás Maduro at the beginning of January in his fortified residence in Caracas, already Manuel Antonio Noriega in Panama in 1989. We talked about lightning, surgical operations rehearsed for weeks.
How could these elite soldiers complement the offensive? Although the president of the United States fantasized about the idea of sending them to “recover enriched uranium” that Iran retains, this mission would be “suicidal” in the words of experts. This radioactive material is kept in warehouses dug into mountains, and can only be handled with protective equipment.
However, they could be decisive in destroying individual objectives on the coast surrounding the Hormuz area. Iranian forces threatening maritime transit are small boats, Shahed drone operatives or even soldiers armed with rocket launchers. ‘Hunting and destroying’ these threats could tip the balance in the Strait.
Dialogue?
In parallel, Trump says he is negotiating with Iran a way out of the war. “We are talking to the right people, and they want to reach an agreement so badly… you have no idea to what extent they want to reach an agreement,” he reiterated this Monday from the White House, without going into details.
The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammed Baqer Alibafa former commander of the Revolutionary Guard whom observers place as the great continuator of the efforts of the disappeared Ali Larijani to keep the defenses of the Islamic Republic standing, denied his words.
However, as announced this Monday by the New York Timesthe Trump Administration sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the offensive, while the Canal 12 Israeli reported the United States intends to reach a one-month ceasefire to discuss said document.
Leave a Reply