Tehran still has offensive power

While Donald Trump says Iran’s offensive capabilities have been “wiped off the map”the barrage of missiles on strategic targets in Israel and the Persian Gulf tells a different story.

Tehran not only retains its firepower, but is demonstrating a technical resilience that calls into question the effectiveness of the US offensive.

A month after the conflict broke out on February 28, the Pentagon has begun to design what could be the most critical phase of the war.

According to reports from the Washington Postthe US military command prepares plans for a ground incursion into Iranian territory which would last for several weeks.

This operation, which moves away from a conventional “large-scale invasion”, would consist of multiple surgical operations carried out by a combination of Special Operations forces and infantry troops.

He USS Tripoli amphibious attack ship deploymentcon 3,500 additional sailors, transport aircraft and tactical unitsreinforces the thesis of an imminent escalation.

This mobilization is added to the reports of The Wall Street Journal y Axios about the possible sending another 10,000 soldiers to the regionraising military pressure to levels not seen since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Iran’s effectiveness

This military persistence translates into constant pressure on the civilian population.

And Israel, Millions of people depend daily on the network of anti-aircraft bunkers due to the frequency of the alarms.

Surveillance cameras recorded the moment when a projectile hit a vehicle in a residential area while several civilians tried to get to safety.

The lethality of the offensive has escalated with the use of specialized weaponsincluding missiles equipped with cluster warheads.

These projectiles, designed to disperse multiple submunitions over large areas, represent a critical technical challenge for interception systems.

Its use in densely populated areas significantly increases the risk of civilian casualties and makes the protection tasks of the anti-aircraft defense difficult by multiplying the explosion sources in a single launch.

For foreign affairs experts, the volume of projectiles launched is not as decisive as the accuracy achieved.

Kelly A. Grieco, researcher at the Stimson Centerhe points out in an interview for the New York Times what Iran’s hit rate has doubled since March 10.

This increase suggests that the US military may have confused a temporary decrease in activity with a real reduction in capacity.

Instead of being destroyed, Iranian assets would have been repositioned to integrate new intelligence and reconnaissance information.

“There are signs that we do not have a defeated adversary, but rather one that is adapting,” explains Grieco.

While the Trump administration emphasizes destruction figures close to 90%, open source data shows a targeting optimization strategy.

An example of this precision occurred this weekend, when a missile hit the city of Dimona, just 16 kilometers from Israel’s nuclear reactor, one of the most protected sites in the world, causing dozens of injuries.

Trump’s pulse

Despite the deployment of military assets, the final decision depends on Donald Trump, who maintains a victory speech while evaluating the political risks of an intervention.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt has stressed that the Pentagon’s job is to offer the “maximum of options” to the president, without this implying an executive order of attack.

Trump publicly insists that Washington is in negotiations with Tehran.

Despite this, the president has set April 6 as deadline to unblock the Strait of Hormuz under threat of destroying Iran’s national power grid.

Since the start of hostilities, the Pentagon has confirmed the deaths of 13 US service members and more than 300 injuries.

According to recent polls, more than half of the US population rejects a ground deployment in Iranian territory.

On the ground, US forces would face a response from an army that has fortified its positions and has drones, missiles and improvised explosives.

Iran’s response

From the other side of the front, the president of the Iranian Parliament, Mohamad Baqer Qalibaf, denounced a double strategy by Washington: talking about dialogue in public while secretly planning a ground assault.

He commander of the Northwest Barracks of the Iranian Armyhe general Amirhosein Shafieihas threatened to “slit the throats” of American troops.

“Let the enemy be sure that we sharpen our knives more every day and that “We will cut the throat of each of your soldiers.”stated the senior military official.

Shafiei has assured that, since the start of the war a month ago, the Iranian Armed Forces They have “adjusted their tactics” to respond to each attack with forceful actions.