A second Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner, Narges Mohammadi, awarded in 2023, remains in prison. Mohammadi, who followed Ebadi’s fight, is a defender of Human Rights and, despite the appeals of her husband and children, exiled in France, she was condemned once again on the eve of the start of the war for activities against the regime founded in 1979 by Khomeini and then, from 1989 until a few weeks ago, led by Ali Khamenei.
After the death of the Supreme Guide in the Israeli-American attacks that began on February 28, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, would have been elected to the position, but there are many doubts about whether he will actually govern Iran, or whether it is the military who, in fact, lead the resistance to Israel and the United States, whose war aims are to end the nuclear ambitions of ancient Persia and also force a regime change.
Now, Ebadi, who in January, when Khamenei ordered the violent repression of demonstrations against the regime, called on the United States to come and protect the Iranian people, has now been appointed leader of a Transitional Justice Commission, to act in the event of the end of the Islamic Republic.
It was an invitation from the most influential of the leaders of the Iranian external opposition, Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah of Iran. Since the war began, Pahlavi, who was visiting France, where his mother lives, made Paris his base to prepare the future government in Tehran. Also this Wednesday, the daily Le Monde explained how the heir to the throne is building a network in the diaspora, both in Europe and the United States, believing that the fall of the Islamic Republic is approaching. This is despite the resistance capacity of the regime, which refuses to give in to the Americans and Israelis, launches drones and missiles even against Arab countries and is betting on blocking the Strait of Hormuz to destabilize the world supply of oil and natural gas and generate pressure on the United States to stop a war that is beginning to impact the international economy.
About this war, we know how it started, we also know that Donald Trump promised it would be brief, but it is unpredictable when it will end. The resistance of the regime, despite the greater American and Israeli military power, complicates the calculations, and the fact that it continues, even with the elimination of rulers, could mean that there is a hard line willing to do anything, and that there is no moderate current with the possibility of trying to negotiate with the American president for peace and a transition. It is also uncertain whether Iran, with the harsh attacks of this war, will be able to remain united by the strength of Persian nationalism or whether there will be separatisms in action, such as the Kurds, or even a generalized civil war, as it is clear that a large part of the population does not see themselves in the regime founded in 1979, even if they now fear taking to the streets, for all possible reasons.
Leave a Reply