One of the natural candidates for president of Brazil in the next election is in prison. For this reason, he was forced to choose a dauphin, who competes benefiting from his electoral assets, in his name, for him and for him.
In the middle of the electoral process there is a corruption scandal in the country of incalculable proportions, which could shake the structures of Brasília.
Donald Trump leading the most powerful nation in the world, the United States, in addition to making global geopolitics much more unpredictable, could also influence suffrage.
And the quagmire of social media, where fake news have become the standard, too.
The polarization between Bolsonarism and Lulism, however, generates a multiplication of pre-candidates and candidates from a supposed third way of the center-right or moderate right.
Here, in five paragraphs, is the pre-election scenario in Brazil. But the paragraphs and scenario above refer to 2018, not 2026.
Like today’s Jair Bolsonaro, a natural candidate for the elections, Lula da Silva was also a sure name in 2018, had he not been in prison. Without political children, he chose Fernando Haddad as his heir, a role now occupied, on the other side of the barricade, by Flávio Bolsonaro.
Instead of the scandal of that time, the Lava Jatotoday’s is the Masteraround the bankruptcy of a bank whose owner, like the owners of the construction company Odebrecht, in 2018, threatened to expose half of Brasília.
Trump, who governed from 2017 to 2021, returned to power last year.
And the sewage networks are now even anabolized by the incalculable reach of AI and the like.
As Lula and Flávio monopolize more than two thirds of the votes in the polls, today, via Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Eduardo Leite and other names, candidates to win the third third are proliferating, just as they multiplied, in 2018, through Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin, Henrique Meirelles or Marina Silva.
According to the laws of numerology, “life works in cycles of nine years, marking a continuous process of learning, construction and completion”. The years whose digits add up to nine are usually those most focused on closing chapters, letting go of old patterns and emotional cleansing.
Therefore, in the same way that 2017 (two plus one plus seven equals nine), the year in which Lula was convicted and Bolsonaro ran as a candidate, marked Brazilian politics for the following nine years, 2025 (two plus two plus five equals nine), the year in which Lula announced his re-candidacy and Bolsonaro was convicted, can mark the next ones.
In another, more historical and philosophical interpretation, Karl Marx, when comparing Napoleon with his nephew, Louis Bonaparte, who insisted on imitating his uncle, called the former’s consulate glorious and the latter’s burlesque. What worked, adapting an original phrase by Friedrich Hegel, into one of his most famous quotes – “history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce”.
You don’t need to be a German philosopher or an amateur numerologist to realize that Brazil is, once again, at the beginning of something – in October we will know what.
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