For the governmental field, the plebiscite to which Italians were called this Sunday and Monday (until 3pm local time) is about approving an urgent and essential judicial reform. For the opposition, what is at stake is the independence of the judiciary and an attack on the Constitution. Polls show a country divided, but with the rejection of the proposal to lead.
The 51 million voters must answer the following question: “Approve the text of the law revising articles 87, tenth paragraph, 102, first paragraph, 104, 105, 106, third paragraph, 107, first paragraph, and 110 of the Constitution, approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette of October 30, 2025, with the title ‘Norms on matters of jurisdictional order and institution of the Court Disciplinary’?”
The summary of the question, made on the opposition’s social networks, in the case of the 5 Star Movement, is the following: “Do you want a judge controlled by the powerful and politicians?”. Exaggeration by the anti-system party? So how to classify the statements made by the Prime Minister and leader of the Brothers of Italy? Last week, in Milan, Giorgia Meloni said that, if the referendum were failed, her compatriots would expect “even more negligent magistrates” to progress in their careers, “even more surreal decisions at the expense of citizens”. Without explaining how the judicial system would get worse if the same organization remained, Meloni said: “Illegal immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, traffickers who put your safety at risk will be released.”
What is at stake, after all? Promoted by the right-wing and extreme-right coalition government (Brothers of Italy, Força Italia and League) as the solution to the evils that afflict Italian justice, The reform aims to make a clear separation of careers between judges and prosecutors. The other associated key point is the replacement of the current Superior Council of the Judiciary (CSM) by two and the creation of the High Disciplinary Court.
There is a perception, starting with the National Association of Magistrates, that this is a coup against the power that, since Operation Clean Hands and the succession of cases against businessman and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, has caused resentment on the Italian right. A malaise that continued with Matteo Salvini, leader of the League who, in his role as Minister of the Interior, was accused of “kidnapping” 147 immigrants saved at sea by the NGO Open Arms but prevented from entering Italy. (Salvini, now Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, was acquitted). And, more recently, in light of the decisions of two judges (reimbursement from the NGO Sea Watch and compensation of 700 euros to an Algerian in an irregular situation for having been sent to Albania in handcuffs and without being informed of his destination), the Meloni rebelled against “a politicized part of the judicial system” that “is ready to make obstacles”.
Loss of right to election
To what extent can the reform, which the opposition needs to focus on the judiciary and not on justice, remove the “obstacles”? Not so much because they separate the careers — they are in fact separate. Until now, candidates for judges and prosecutors receive equal training and take the same exam together, and then occupy one or the other role. They can only change their position, and therefore their career, once. An unusual movement. Out of a universe of 9,000, 42 magistrates asked to change careers in 2024. The removal of obstacles takes place by depriving magistrates of the right to elect their representatives on the Superior Council of Judiciary, leaving them, in theory, more dependent on the executive branch.
The composition of the current CSM is divided into two thirds of magistrates elected among themselves, and one third of jurists and law professors elected by Parliament. If the constitutional change is approved by voters, magistrates will be drawn for each of the councils, as well as for the High Disciplinary Court.
Messages from the government field do not help to create trust among voters. In addition to Meloni’s aforementioned statement that the criminals would be released, Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, in an interview with Corriere della Seraexplained to the opposition, in particular the leader of the Democratic Party, Elly Schlein, that it would make no sense to oppose the reform, since it “would also benefit him if he came to power”. Nordio, while denying wanting to influence the judiciary, also said he was “trying to help politics recover the place that the Judiciary occupies”.
The opposition’s response was the wholesale rejection of the constitutional amendment proposal, approved first by the Council of Ministers (2024), and later by the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, but without the mandatory two-thirds majority. In what will be the 84th referendum in Italy, including the one in which voters chose the republic over the monarchy in 1946, parties of the left, center-left and the populist 5-Star Movement joined their voice.
At the same rally, in Rome, the leaders rejected Meloni’s initiative (although they did not appear on stage together). “Politics shouldn’t play with us. The separation of careers is already a fact. The truth is that it is a project that is born from a long trend, that of politics that does not accept the control of legality. This is a fraudulent reform”said 5-Star leader and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. “We ask that you vote no to a reform that does not improve justice for citizens, but that weakens the independence of judges”, said Elly Schlein. “This issue is entirely political. This counter-reform reveals the political nature of the attack on the Constitution perpetrated by the right”, considered Nicola Fratoianni, leader of the Italian Left. Angelo Bonelli, spokesperson for Europa Verde, responded directly to the prime minister: “There is an unstoppable advance of no because there is unstoppable indignation among Italians. The prime minister should be ashamed of herself for what she said, that if she wins no, the rapists will be left free. In any other civilized country, she would have been led to dismissal.”
Meloni rejects resigning
With Meloni at the center of the discussion, the result of the polls will end up being handed to the prime minister who, in September, will break the record for uninterrupted longevity as chief executive. And which, until now, has not known a political defeat. She herself has already said that, whatever the outcome, she will continue in her role. “I would not resign because my intention is to finish my term and present myself to the Italians in the 2027 legislative elections,” he said.
Research experts predict that the result of the referendum — which, as it is confirmation, does not depend on a minimum number of voters to be valid — will be defined according to the mobilization of the electorate: the greater the participation, the greater the probability of approval. In a survey at the beginning of the month for the La7 channel, the No camp was four points above Yes, with a turnout between 46% and 51%. In another survey for SkyTg24, in the low abstention rate scenario, Yes wins with 52.6%. In the opposite scenario, No will prevail with 51.1%.
For Fabrizio Masia, director of the EMG research institute, “a victory for the no could give a new dynamic to build a center-left bloc and cause problems within Meloni’s ranks”he considered in statements to Reuters. On the contrary, a yes victory “would reinforce the political project [do governo] in the long term, particularly in view of the 2027 elections”, said professor of political science at the University of Trento Emanuele Massetti.
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