The second lesson is that the United States emerges weakened from this conflict, both in the eyes of its allies and adversaries. It was clear that, despite their military superiority, they were unable to impose their will on Iran. And the war made even more visible the growing fracture with European allies and, perhaps more worrying, the erosion of trust in the Gulf Arab states. For the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirates, Washington rushed into an avoidable war and, when escalation became inevitable, proved unable to neutralize the Iranian threat.
Iran, far from being defeated, emerges as a weakened but unpredictable actor, willing to take high risks – and with whom neighbors will inevitably have to deal, because geography does not change, unlike alliances.
The third conclusion concerns Russia, which was the great beneficiary of this war. Moscow received a precious financial oxygen balloon with the spike in oil prices and the partial relief of some sanctions. He saw the United States mired in a conflict that, if the truce does not evolve into a lasting peace, could turn into a long, bloody war with unpredictable consequences. And it has also seen the political weakening of NATO as a cohesive bloc, exposed by Europe’s refusal to participate in the war and Trump’s public response.
China has also reaped dividends, seeking to position itself as a defender of multilateralism and respect for international law, although its heavy dependence on Gulf oil leaves it with a bittersweet taste. It would not be unreasonable to assume that Beijing pressured Tehran to agree to negotiate.
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