Consultant Bain & Company predicts that in the coming years the banking sector will once again be attentive to possible mergers, with the joint objective of gaining scale and diversifying the business, following the global trend.
In a statement released this Monday, 9th, Bain & Company informs about the recently released report on banking consolidation around the world and for Portugal, it considers that in a sector “marked by high concentration and structural pressure on margins” it should lead the main decision makers to evaluate the possibility of carrying out mergers.
“The need to reinforce efficiency, accelerate digital transformation and respond to competition from ‘fintechs’ and new European operators puts the issue of consolidation back on the sector’s radar”, says the consultant.
Bain & Company estimates that, by 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector will have accelerated globally to a global value of 212 billion dollars (around 183 million euros at current prices).
The companies’ objective, he added, has been to gain scale, reinforce technological capabilities and diversify business.
According to the consultancy, until the beginning of the 2020s, these operations had only one objective (either scale or diversification) but now the objective is integrated, as scale and diversification “when combined generate gains in efficiency and innovation, allowing to improve efficiency ratios, accelerate digital modernization and create new growth levers”.
“Acquisitions carried out in 2025 that combined significant components of scale and diversification recorded, on average, around 30% better valuation gains than those focusing on just one of the two dimensions, showing that integrated strategies create more value for shareholders”, estimates the consultant who also works on advising on operations of this type.
Bain & Company recalls, in Spain, for example, the merger between CaixaBank and Bankia or the acquisition of LeasePlan by ALD (now Ayvens).
Portugal has a banking market considered concentrated, with five banks representing more than 80% of the banking system.
The five main banks operating in Portugal had aggregate profits exceeding five billion euros in 2025, the year in which Caixa Geral de Depósitos, BCP and Novo Banco (bought by the French group BPCE) recorded the highest results in their histories.
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