Trump pressures Iran to seal an agreement but rules out changing the regime and maintains his ambiguity on Hormuz

Qalibaf was also commander of the Revolutionary Guard and has maintained in all his public statements a hard line against the United States and in favor of the regime’s resistance.

However, Qalibaf could be one of those figures who, according to Marco Rubioare addressing “privately” the White House with hopeful messages.

The fact that the United States forced Israel to remove both Qalibaf and Abás AraqchiMinister of Foreign Affairs, from his list of objectives, suggests that he really considers that they can play a decisive role in a new administration more inclined to understanding.

The issue to be resolved is whether Qalibaf and Araqchi are truly sending messages of dissidence and, above all, whether they have any capacity to influence the “hard line” Revolutionary Guard that continues to militarily control the country.

Araqchi, for example, was at the Geneva negotiations at the end of February, after which the Oman government came out to say that it was necessary to be more optimistic than ever about an imminent agreement… and, hours later, Israel and the United States were bombing Tehran.

In short, the negotiated solution to the war will depend on whether, as they say in the White House, there is an internal division in the regime or if that is what they are being sold, without a clear basis, by third countries such as Pakistan, Egypt or Turkey while in reality the ayatollahs buy time to better defend themselves from a possible ground attack.

Then, that internal faction, of which even the president could be a part Masud Pezeshkianwould have to achieve military support that it does not seem to have right now.

Enriched uranium

Faced with doubt, President Trump wanted to make clear this Monday what the American press has been anticipating for days: the military option still stands.

What is not yet clear is how it will be realized or with what objectives.

In recent hours, there has been speculation about the occupation of Jark Island, to control Iranian oil, with the deployment of amphibious forces and paratroopers in certain points of the Gulf coast… and even with a precision operation aimed at capturing the enriched uranium that remains at the disposal of the Tehran regime.

The problem is that there is no unified position regarding the objectives or at least they do not want to make it public, which would also make sense.

There is supposedly a fifteen-point offer that, according to Trump, is practically accepted—by whom?—although the media indicates otherwise.

However, Rubio insists on the need to put an end to Iranian aviation – whose importance has always been zero – without mentioning the need to completely end the Iranian nuclear program, something that, for Trump, JD Vance y Pete Hegseth It is the top priority.

As for enriched uranium, we do not know what quantities we are talking about or where they are. The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) states that it is still in the underground laboratories attacked last June.

Now, according to the agency itself, the damage from the bombings makes access to these laboratories almost impossible, making it difficult to think of a short operation, similar to that of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.

In fact, according to Trump, these laboratories were already “wiped off the map”, so it is not known what can be found in them at this point.

Consequently, it is difficult to know the number of troops necessary for an operation of this type, but, unless the United States wants to be ambitious, it seems that 5,000 or 6,000 men seem insufficient.

They may be useful for a precise objective, but not for controlling different key points.

Hormuz, the other key piece

Because the truth is that, in the worst possible scenario, that is, in which there is no interlocutor really capable of reaching agreements or implementing said agreements, the United States, beyond the capture of enriched uranium, will have to fight to open the Strait of Hormuz.

All this without the help of its European partners… or of Israel, which has already said that it is not in a position to send troops to the area because it is too far away.

The entire burden would rest on the shoulders of the American army and, for now, Trump does not want to reveal his cards yet.

In a message on social networks, he was optimistic about the negotiations… but warned that, if they did not quickly lead to the opening of the strait, he would bomb Iran’s entire energy infrastructure, including the civil one, which would constitute a war crime, but, at this point, none of that seems to matter to either side.

He said nothing, therefore, about troops on the ground, and the White House spokeswoman, Caroline Leavitthas limited himself to remembering that there are plans available so that the president can choose… without this implying that said decision has already been made.

The markets, for the moment, remain expectant, with slight increases in Brent futures, which rose around 2% this Monday to almost $108 per barrel.

In direct sale, it is still above $110, a figure that takes us back to what we experienced during the first months of the war in Ukraine and which led to stagflation that spread throughout the West.