The uproar that the war in the Middle East is causing in the financial markets gained new contours when Trump talks about negotiations with Iran. Many analysts point to suspicions of ‘insider trading’ and in the Democratic Party there is talk of “corruption”.
Last week began with falls in stock markets and aggressive rises in the price of oil, as a result of Donald Trump threatening, on Saturday (March 21st), to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if that country did not allow ships to circulate in the Strait of Hormuz (deadline 48 hours).
Around 20% of global oil and natural gas trade passes through there. The tension between investors was evident… up to a point, when it was interrupted by statements from the US president himself.
On Monday, March 23, Trump announced “productive talks” with Iran, signaling a possible path to peace between the USA, Israel and Iran. Thus, a strong mood was generated in the markets and the response was an immediate reversal of sentiment. Stock markets rose to positive territory, correcting part of the losses of the previous days. At the same time, the price of a barrel fell sharply, into the ‘red’.
Days later, the world learned of data that could result from the use of secret information to monetize investments. 15 minutes after Trump’s latest announcement, made via the social network Truth Social, an investor (whose name is unknown) withdrew around 500 million dollars invested in crude oil futures contracts.
At stake is money that had been significantly profitable in the previous hours. He would then end up being removed from exposure to market volatility, escaping free fall for those 15 minutes.
Now, on the one hand, this movement may be honest. The luck or instinct of the investor in question may have been the cause of a gain adjusted almost to the millimeter to the movements of the negotiations. On the other hand, we may be talking about insider trading.
This is the name of a practice that consists of making use of privileged information to capitalize on investment in the capital markets. It is a crime (punishable by prison sentences of between 20 and 25 years and up to five million dollars in fines), but it is extremely difficult to prove.
We know what happened, but we don’t know who did it. And, even if it were known, it would be necessary to prove that the person in question had access to, for example, a leak from the White House, which would allow him to infer about future movements in the markets.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the North American regulator for this purpose and is in charge of investigating cases like this. However, even if you use all means and make every effort, it will be difficult for you to obtain a basis to support a concrete accusation against the investor, if justified.
What is certain is that analysts around the world are talking about the possibility of insider trading and the controversy naturally reached North American politics. Chris Murphy, senator from the Democratic Party, went further, with an accusation of “corruption”, through a publication on X.
Furthermore, this type of suspicion is nothing new during Donald Trump’s government.
Previous moves also generated controversy
According to analytics firm Bubblemaps, six accounts made more than a million dollars on the Polymarket platform at the start of the war. The base was timing attacks on Iran on February 28th.
That application and website allow you to invest in all types of events that occur around the world. Hours before the US began attacks on Iranian territory, bets were registered to that effect, reports Bubblemaps.
Another event in focus was the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which also triggered sharp gains for certain investors. Just last year, on October 10, Trump introduced additional 100% tariffs on imports from China, sending markets plummeting. Before, there were atypical movements in the cryptocurrency market, which raised suspicions in the same direction.
It is known that the suspicions are not new, but they seem to be becoming more recurrent. While it may be a significant flux of lucky instinct, it at least raises the possibility that ethically regrettable and legally prohibited decisions are at play.
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