Damascus- Following the overthrow of the regime of ousted President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syrian-Russian relations entered a decisive transitional phase, described as pragmatic and seeking a balance between common interests and sovereign claims.
The visit of Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, on Wednesday, to Moscow, and his meeting with his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, constituted a major turning point in redefining these relations.
The agreements between the two countries are the focus of discussion between Al-Sharaa and Putin, and include strategic and military files. It is expected that Russia will renew its retention of the Hmeimim and Tartus naval bases on the Syrian coast.
Common benefit
For his part, political analyst Rami Al-Shaer, who is close to decision-making circles in Russia, told Al Jazeera Net that Moscow is focusing on achieving common benefit in the military, security and humanitarian fields.
He explained that the Tartous port base supports the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean and other oceans based on a long-term agreement, while the Hmeimim base began its duties in 2015 at the request of the former Syrian regime to confront “terrorist organizations” and “in line with Security Council resolutions.”
In his opinion, the current circumstances call for a re-evaluation of the Russian military presence, stressing that it is “official and in line with international law.” He added that the current Syrian leadership did not cancel the request for this presence, but rather expressed its desire to continue coordination with Moscow, with a focus on using the two bases for logistical purposes, including transporting humanitarian aid to Africa.
He pointed to “the Syrian leadership’s confidence in Russia, which respects the historical relations between the two countries since 1944,” without seeking to establish its influence in Damascus. During Al-Sharaa’s visit, he stressed Syria’s interest in developing relations with Moscow in energy, agriculture, water, and building factories to support the economy affected by the sanctions.
According to Al-Shaer, Syria is counting on Russia to bypass Western sanctions as it is a strategic partner capable of supporting it through joint projects, which enhances its economic and development stability. He believes that Moscow is “a reliable partner that respects Damascus’ sovereignty and seeks to strengthen bilateral relations on the basis of mutual benefit.”
During his meeting with Al-Sharaa, Putin stressed that the two countries “have enjoyed special relations for decades, and that Moscow has been guided by the interests of the Syrian people.” He added, “We respect previous agreements and want to redefine joint relations.”
While President Al-Sharaa said, “The new Syria reconnects strategic relations with countries, led by Russia,” stressing respect for previous agreements while trying to redefine relations.
“Unfair” agreements
For his part, he confirmed Researcher in Russian affairs Mahmoud Al-Hamza told Al Jazeera Net that reconsidering the agreements concluded with the Assad regime is a prerequisite for rebuilding cooperation with the new Syria. He described it as “unjust” because it “included concessions on sovereignty in favor of the ousted president remaining.”
He explained that Moscow is now convinced to deal with the new government on the basis of equality and respect for Syria’s sovereignty. He pointed out that Damascus sees this cooperation as a useful opportunity in light of the internal and external challenges, noting Al-Sharaa’s statements to the Syrian community in Russia, which called for focusing on settling relations and internal construction without opening hostilities.
According to Al-Hamza, Moscow, with its relations with Israel and its membership in the Security Council, can contribute to opening positive horizons for Syria, but without increasing its influence, while carefully defining relations to ensure sovereignty.
Moscow is expected to renew its retention of the bases in Hmeimim and Tartous, while turning them into centers for aid distribution and reconstruction. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Putin and Shara discussed “everything,” including military bases.
Russian companies will participate in the reconstruction of infrastructure, with Moscow supporting the lifting of sanctions in the Security Council. Researcher Al-Hamza addressed the issue of the extradition of former President Bashar al-Assad, describing it as a “thorny” issue.
He said that Al-Sharaa “discussed it with Putin, but the latter refuses to hand over any leader who obtained humanitarian asylum in Russia, considering this to harm his reputation.” He added that the presence of money and officers from the former regime in Russia increases the complexity of the file.
He stressed that limiting the Russian military presence will ensure that it is limited to Hmeimim, which may turn into an aid center, with Syria benefiting from Moscow in conducting patrols on the southern border and in the areas of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Balance condition
Reuters quoted a Syrian source as saying that Al-Sharaa requested the handover of Assad during a Russian delegation’s visit to Damascus in January 2025, as a condition for restoring confidence, along with a request for compensation and support for reconstruction.
But the Russian ambassador to Baghdad, Elbrus Kutrashev, confirmed in a television statement in April 2025 that extraditing Assad was “out of the question” because he had humanitarian asylum. Al-Sharaa acknowledged in an interview with the New York Times that the handover was “a condition for the continued Russian military presence, but Moscow refused.”
It is likely that the Assad file will be used for indirect trade-offs, such as Russia’s support for lifting sanctions in exchange for renewing military agreements.
In context, explain Representative of the Syrian National Alliance Maher Al-Tamran told Al Jazeera Net that amending military agreements requires a balance between sovereignty and interest. He pointed out that the Hmeimim and Tartous bases have become an essential element in regional security, and that ensuring sovereignty lies in redefining the agreements within a national framework that determines the duration and powers, so that the Russian presence becomes limited cooperation.
According to him, the Syrian government faces a complex equation represented by its need for Russian support in infrastructure, armament, fuel, and wheat, while maintaining the independence of the decision.
He identified the challenges in the division of political elites between supporters of Moscow and those who fear its influence, popular pressure to restore national decision-making, and the weakness of institutions due to the war. He stressed that the government adopts a realistic approach that relies on exchanging interests, not loyalty.
Al-Tamran added that Damascus seeks to transform the relationship with Russia into a balanced diplomatic tool, taking advantage of its influence in the Security Council and the energy and armaments files to ease international isolation. He stressed the importance of balance with the Gulf states, Turkey, and Europe to give the government a wider margin of maneuver.