Moscow- While the European Union is still seeking to reach an agreement on the 19th round of sanctions imposed on Russia, the United States continues its attempts to remove the remaining Russian oil and gas from the European and other markets, and replace them with its own supplies.
Washington is currently exerting maximum pressure on India, demanding that it completely abandon Russian oil under the threat of imposing customs duties of 50%, and the possibility of the European Union imposing additional measures.
Promises to India
Washington made promises to India that if it completely stopped importing Russian oil, customs duties on the supply of Indian goods to retailers in the United States would be reduced by half, to 25%.
This is a significant reduction for New Delhi, which is witnessing a decline in domestic consumption, because the main impact of the US tariffs fell on the sectors in which most of the population works.
In light of increasing American pressure, the Adani Group, the largest private port operator, which operates 14 ports in India, banned oil tankers coming from countries subject to sanctions.
Here, Indian importers began demanding that Russian sellers increase their discounts five-fold, prompting some suppliers to redirect their tankers to China.
Meanwhile, the European Commission announced US President Donald Trump’s promise to replace Russian oil and gas with American fuel, as Europe will buy energy worth $750 billion from the United States over a period of 3 years.
Gradual stop
The European Union also announced that it will gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by 2027, as part of the agreement with the United States to reduce customs duties from 30% to 15%.
This applies not only to the European Union countries and India, but also to Türkiye, which currently ranks second in imports of Russian gas, third and fourth in oil imports, and first in imports of petroleum products.
Despite these pressure campaigns, Russian experts doubt that India, Turkey, and even Europe will decide to completely abandon Russian energy supplies, as well as China abandoning Russian oil supplies, despite the United States’ threat to impose high tariffs.
Low cost
Economist Victor Lashon says that despite the inevitable difficulties associated with finding new ways to provide international supplies, it is no longer possible to displace Russian energy resources from the global market.
In a comment to Al Jazeera Net, Lashon cites an example that American shale oil, even at a low cost, is much more expensive than its Russian counterpart.
But at the same time, he refers to Russia, which is the largest supplier of gas to Turkey. However, a trend has already emerged towards reducing dependence on it in the Turkish markets, explaining that the share of Russian gas in imports has decreased from about 50% a few years ago to about 40% currently.
However, the economist stresses that a complete cessation of gas cooperation during the next five to seven years is practically impossible given contractual, infrastructural and economic restrictions.
But he warns that in the longer term (by 2035), this becomes theoretically possible if Turkey succeeds in implementing its strategy of economic diversification from gas imports, from Azerbaijan, the United States and Algeria, and increasing its own gas production.
The spokesman also points out that the European Union has not imported Russian coal since 2022, as it is subject to a European ban, but it still imports very small quantities of Russian oil, i.e. 2% of its total imports, most of which are to Slovakia and Hungary.
He adds that Russian gas imports are not subject to European sanctions, contrary to popular belief, as these imports are still large and represent 14% of total gas imports to the European Union in the first quarter of 2025, 11% of gas imported through pipelines, and 17% of liquefied natural gas, according to European Commission data.
The spokesman confirms that Russia, in any case, is now facing a test of the extent of its capabilities in confronting the United States’ efforts to exclude Russian energy resources from the international market.
Special American interests
For his part, economic affairs researcher Andrei Zaitsev believes that, in the face of these pressures, Russia can find additional markets for Russian fuel in Africa and Asia.
According to his talk to Al Jazeera Net, the pressures of sanctions and attempts to exclude Russian oil from global markets should constitute an impetus for the development of the oil refining and chemical industries in the country.
In his opinion, no possibility has yet been raised to completely ban Russia from selling its oil on the global market, and the reason is simple: with Russia’s share reaching 12% of oil production and 17% of gas exports in 2024, such a ban would destabilize the global market and cause a sharp rise in prices, which would burden all non-producing countries.
He goes on to say that this will of course affect Europe, which now imports almost all of the gas and oil it consumes, and will also affect many countries of the “Global South” that American pressures could push them to shift decisively into the Beijing and Moscow camp.
He believes that President Trump’s insistence on imposing a complete blockade on Russian oil exports, to the point of a dispute with India, will push India into the arms of Beijing, which heralds a geopolitical shift that may not be in Washington’s interest, as he put it.
In addition, the main reason for the US “campaign” against the Russian energy sector lies in US domestic politics and its supporters in the business world of American private companies, not Trump.
He explains that the current price of oil on the global market is very low. With the acceleration of the global economic slowdown, especially due to the uncertainty caused by US customs duties, the price of oil has witnessed a clear decline in the global market in recent months, as the price of a barrel of Brent North Sea crude, which represents a standard, is now approaching $60, which is the price that was imposed on Russian oil.