ECONOMYNEXT – Global trade volumes have slowed ‘noticeably’ in 2Q25, Fitch Ratings said, and is expected to slow further in the coming months.
“With an average US effective tariff rate of 16%, we expect global trade to slow further in the coming months,” the ratings agency said.
The full statement is reproduced below:
Global Trade Volumes Slow in 2Q25 on Tariff Impacts
Fitch Ratings-London-19 September 2025: Global trade volumes slowed noticeably in 2Q25, reversing the sharp increase recorded in 1Q25, a move which had been triggered by importers front-loading ahead of the implementation of US tariffs. An example of this trade volatility is shown by US imports in 1Q25 and 2Q25, when volumes increased 30% year on year (yoy) in March but then contracted to -2.8% yoy by June, as highlighted in the latest ‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’.
With an average US effective tariff rate of 16%, we expect global trade to slow further in the coming months. At a regional level, export volumes in the two months to June slowed in advanced economies and China but recovered in Korea and Australia. Exports from Mexico, a major trading partner of the US, were flat in 2Q.
Import growth slowed sharply in Brazil from 16% in 1Q25 to 4% in 2Q25, as past monetary tightening continues to weigh on domestic demand. In India, import volume growth rebounded from almost -13% yoy in 1Q25 to 11% yoy in 2Q25, while in Mexico it was flat.
The quarterly ‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’ (formerly ‘20/20 Vision’) chart pack covers the 20 major economies (the Fitch20) that are the focus of our Economics team’s global macro analysis, and plots five years of high-frequency economic data for 20 variables, with consistent coverage across each country.
‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’ is available by clicking the link or at www.fitchratings.com.