Pilgrim Trump’s plan for Cuba

secretary of state, Marco Rubiohe declared that Cuba needed “new people on the move”. This appears to confirm press reports that Trump is calling for the Cuban president to be replaced, Miguel Diaz-Canelfor a number closer to the United States, such as Venezuela Delcy Rodriguez.

Cuba is going through its worst economic crisis since the revolution in 1959. Since the oil embargo imposed by Trump three months ago, the island has been without electricity most of the time. Tourism has exploded and the economy is paralyzed.

Despite the embargo, Trump’s apparent effort to pursue a Venezuela-style numbing of Cuba (without a defined election calendar) could do little more than provide a lifeline to the Cuban regime. It’s an idea that doesn’t hold true in Miami or among many Cubans on the island.

Sebastian Arcosinterim director of the Instituto de Investigaciones Cubanas de la Universidad Internacional de Florida, told me that Trump’s “Venezola model” won’t work in Cuba because the two countries “are very different animals.”

Cuba is a dictatorship with a highly cohesive hierarchy, while Venezuela had various competing faces in its government before the capture. Nicolás Maduro. Finding a similar father in the United States will be much more difficult in Cuba than it was in Venezuela, Arcos said.

In addition, Venezuela is a much richer country than Cuba. While Venezuela holds oil and is poised to undertake economic reform that could eventually result in political change, Cuba experiences a humanitarian crisis every day or week.

And the Cuban exiles in Miami, who with their potential turnover in the thousands of dollars will be the key to Cuba’s economic recovery, which coincides with the fact that political reforms should come first and economic reforms second, Arcos says.

There’s a consensus in Miami that says, “No, no, no! Cuba is not Venezuela. We have to suffer this weed of evil in Cuba before we really move toward economic reconstruction,” Arcos told me.

In a phone interview from Havana, a dissident Manuel Cuesta Morúa He pointed out to me that both types of reforms should be concurrent. What I am saying is that while most Cubans on the island will welcome any prominence to help alleviate their shortages, any understanding should include both economic and political reforms.

A clearly defined agreement on political reform would be troubling because Cuba would become a country of investors and tourists, but not a country of free citizens, I noted.

Trump has a much greater opportunity for change in Cuba, where he is an ex-president Obama when various United States economic sanctions were imposed in 2016 and they hoped (in vain) for political change on the island. The Cuban regime is under much more pressure today than at this momentI say Cuesta Morúa.

This death is reversed by a joint humanitarian aid package for Cuba, originating from the United States and Latin America, in exchange for a “contemporary agenda” of economic and political reforms.

Yoani Sanchezdirector of a Cuban independent digital periodical 14yMiddleagreed that any bilateral agreement should include a clear timetable for democracy. A purely economic view might suggest a temporary burden, but not a solution to the big problem facing Cubans: Falla de Libertades“, I say.

This is an acuerdo. Trump, whose popularity has plummeted in this election and fears a crippling defeat in November’s general election, is scrambling to reach a deal with Cuba and be able to judge a foreign policy victory. But if the plan is simply to replace the current director with one of his subordinates, not much will be lost.

Without Mayan political change, there will be no reversals and Cuba will not be able to transform itself into a viable country where exiles and foreigners can turn without fear of expropriation by a legal dictatorship.