The week will begin with rainy conditions in much of Yucatán, with scattered rainfall that could occur in up to 70% of the state, mainly during the afternoons and nights, reported meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís in an interview with Yucatan Diary.
“We are going to start the week with more rain. Mérida had not had so much activity, but now there could be scattered thunderstorms in a good part of the territory,” explained the specialist.
He also explained that this situation is due to the presence of a trough extended from Central America to the Yucatan Peninsula, which keeps the atmosphere unstable.
According to Palma Solís, a tropical wave is expected to reinforce the potential for rain today, Monday and tomorrow, Tuesday, with precipitation that could reach between 25 and 50 millimeters, accompanied by electrical activity and gusts of wind.
Starting on Wednesday, the rains will tend to decrease in frequency and intensity, as drier air arrives and the wind direction changes toward the northeast component.
Although the rains are reduced, the environment will continue to be hot and muggy, with maximum temperatures close to 35 degrees and thermal sensations above 40 degrees, due to the high humidity.
Starting on Thursday and Friday, the rains will decrease noticeably in the region, giving way to more stable conditions and a slight drop in temperatures, the meteorologist said.
The change will be due to the entry of northeasterly winds from the Gulf of Mexico, which will bring cooler and more humid air.
Although the atmosphere will continue to be hot, with maximums of 33 to 34 degrees, a slight improvement will be felt compared to the previous days.
In parallel with local conditions, Palma Solís warned that a tropical wave that entered the eastern Caribbean remains under surveillance and has up to a 70% probability of becoming a tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days.
“It could form between Thursday and Friday, when the system is located south of Cuba or Jamaica. There is still no defined trajectory, but the risk is that it could remain stationary in that area, over very warm waters, which would favor rapid intensification,” he explained.
The meteorologist stressed that it cannot yet be determined if the system will directly affect the Yucatan Peninsula, since its movement will depend on the behavior of high pressures and cold fronts in the Gulf of Mexico.
“If the system remains blocked in the Caribbean, it could reach great intensity, even similar to what happened with ‘Wilma’ in 2005. We are not saying that the same scenario will be repeated, but we must be attentive,” he said.
According to the meteorologist, if the tropical system develops in the Caribbean, there are three possible trajectories.
One of them is that the phenomenon moves north, towards Cuba and the western Caribbean, away from the Yucatan Peninsula.
Another scenario is that the system advances towards the west or southwest, impacting areas of Central America.
It is also possible that it will approach the peninsular region, depending on the behavior of the high pressures and cold fronts that will be established over the Gulf of Mexico.
“At this moment the three scenarios have a similar percentage of probability, so the most important thing is to remain vigilant,” the specialist stressed.
Although for now there is no alert for Yucatán, Palma Solís urged the population to keep an eye on official reports and follow weather updates over the course of the week.
“There is still time and the scenarios can change, but we should never trust ourselves. The Caribbean must be constantly vigilant, because current conditions are very favorable for the development of tropical cyclones.”— DARINKA RUIZ MORIMOTO
Phenomenon under observation
A system in the Caribbean that has a high potential to be a cyclone remains under surveillance.
Called to be alerts
The 2025 cyclone season remains active and, although there is no cause for alarm, it is essential to maintain a culture of prevention and constant preparation, said meteorologist Juan Antonio Palma Solís.
Precautions
Although the possible cyclone is still far from the Mexican coast, authorities and specialists insist that it is time to take basic precautions.
For emergencies
It is important to review your family emergency kit, identify evacuation routes, stay informed only through official sources, secure important documents and have basic supplies of non-perishable food and water.