Everyone in the world is talking about going to Venezuela, but in some cases the most important question is. What’s next for Chavismo?
I am getting the message: Chavismo is not going away. No disappearing with death Hugo Chavezwith the humanitarian crisis, with sanctions or with the diaspora.
He will soon have it with the political transition.
It has a territorial structure in every region of the country, a real popular base, its own identity, economic power and communication power. It is bigger than Maduro. In fact, it’s always been that way.
So the question is that chavismo will not survive until it is accepted. And yes they enter Delcy y Jorge Rodriguez.
The hermits, the improvisers, have spent years working on a political project for Chavismo that goes further than a dictator imprisoned in New York. His aspiration is to transform Chavismo into Venezuelan Peronism.
Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodríguez spoke with National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabell.
We want to rediscover it as a permanent political force in a system that is ultimately democratic.
The pinnacle of his ambitions is, by the way, the movement launched by the tenth coronation coup that Venezuelans chose in 1998.
The one who took 3 of the money changed everything.
Maduro’s capture did not only lead to the leader of the table. I also gave her power at the plate from Rodríguez. Conclusions Saquen sus propias.
But what is certain is that every day (like it or not) Delcy is the president, while Jorge enters the National Assembly, from which the legality of a possible transition is based. He holds the future of Venezuela in his hands.
Above all, in the history of Chavismo, the two figures who built this project have the institutional conditions for its implementation.
And the signals are still there.
The Ley de Amnistía para la Convivencia Democrática, promulgated by Delca in February, implicitly acknowledges that the state has held political prisoners for decades.
Hydrocarbons law reform disrupts PDVSA’s monopoly and opens the door, however timid, to private inversion.
Diplomatic relations with the United States, as of 2019, are stable.
New oil river.
Energy and mineral resources are advancing.
None of this is accidental. It is the deliberate building (with the tutelage and support of the White House) of Chavismo that can present itself to the world as a legitimate political actor, and not as a dictatorial regime.
A Chavismo that negotiates, opens markets, frees political leaders and aligns itself with Washington.
A figure who can compete with government mandates at the moment of elections and who, no matter what happens, remains relevant.
The Peronist jugada is viable because Chavismo is not just a government. It is a movement with deep roots in Venezuelan society. It has political, economic and media influence. It maintains a narrative that connects with a significant portion of the population, even if it proves incomprehensible to some.
Whether or not there will be a majority will depend on current economic trends, but keep a solid foundation for what to do in politics.
A mural of Hugo Chávez on a street in Caracas.
Peronism survived in Argentina Platformto exile, to military dictatorship, to hyperinflation, to Menemism and to Kirchnerism. It continues to be the country’s most important political force, even if it is not run by a government.
Not because it’s good (objectively, it isn’t) until it has something that no other Argentine political movement has ever built: national identity and territorial structure.
El chavismo has everything.
The mistake of the Venezuelan opposition and much of the international community is to continue to function as a transition that would mark the end of Chavismo.
As if democracy were a grater that eliminates twenty-year-old instances of political history.
Or how thousands of people were forced to stop identifying with the movement just because the government changed.
This does not occur in Argentina or in any country in the region that has witnessed a similar process. Not happening in Venezuela.
Whoever plans the political future of Venezuela without joining Chavismo as a permanent actor is building a fantasy. And fantasies do not survive in contact with reality.
There is another point of view that cannot be ignored.
The future elected government in Venezuela will tend to maintain close relations with the United States. No alternative. Washington invited political and military capital on January 3. Not for charity, but because Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the hemisphere, critical minerals and a strategic geographic location.
And that doesn’t change with any elections.
Los Rodríguez entienden en eso constructien el relación con Washington parallel to the internal reconstruction of the movement. It is not one or the other, until the same time.
Internal legitimacy and external legitimacy. This is the Peronist Chavismo architecture they are weaponizing.
Whether Rodríguez’s project is good or bad for Venezuela needs no comment. It is a description of what is happening: a political game with internal logic, precedents and the most favorable conditions in the entire history of Chavismo.
The question you don’t ask is that chavismo will survive the transition.
The question is the transition to Chavismo that Rodríguez is building.
Will the opposition understand or pretend not to see it?
*** Francisco Poleo is a specialist analyst in Ibero-America and the United States.
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