MEXICO CITY.— The National Weather Serviceof the National Water Commissionissued the notice of its weather forecastfrom 06:00 a.m. on Thursday, October 16, 2025.
For today, the moisture ingress of the Caribbean Sea and the slow advance of the tropical wave number 38, They will generate very heavy occasional rains in Quintana Roo and Yucatán; and strong points in Campeche.
A low pressure area with probability of cyclonic development off the Mexican southern Pacific coast, the probability of intense occasional rains in Chiapas and Oaxaca will remain; and very strong punctual waves in Guerrero, in addition to high waves on the coasts of said states.
We share the weather for the next few hours. pic.twitter.com/xDCWJDSwR5
— Yucatan Civil Protection (@procivy) October 16, 2025
He “Mérida” Regional Hydrometeorological Centerof the Yucatan Peninsula Basin Organizationannounced his weather forecastvalid from 06:00 a.m. on Thursday the 6th until 06:00 a.m. on Friday, October 17, 2025.
The document indicates that this Thursday there will be a probability of strong storms in the eastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.
In the next 24 hours, partly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected, with the probability of intervals of showers with storms and isolated rains in Yucatán and Campeche, as well as strong storms in Quintana Roo, due to a trough that will extend from the central portion of the Gulf of Mexico to the western Caribbean Sea, and the passage of the tropical wave number 38.
Hot to very hot environment during the day and warm at night.
Winds from the northwest in Yucatán and Campeche, and from the northeast in Quintana Roo, from 15 to 25 km/h, with gusts greater than 40 km/h.
Weather in Merida
The temperature forecast for the city of Mérida is in the range of 33 to 35 °C as a maximum and 22 to 24 °C as a minimum. For the interior of the state, the maximum will be 34 to 36 °C in the south, east and North-Central, minimum 21 to 23 °C in the south.
Current temperature of Merida
At 8:00 in the morning this Thursday, the temperature in Mérida was 28 °Celsius, with humidity of 72% and wind of 5 km/h.
Weather in Yucatan
Partially cloudy to cloudy skies, with a probability of intervals of showers with storms in the northeast, north-center, east and south of the state, as well as isolated rains in the northwest of the entity. Hot to very hot environment during the day and warm at night. Prevailing winds from the northwest of 15 to 25 km/h, with
gusts greater than 40 km/h.
Weather in Campeche
Partially cloudy to cloudy skies, with the probability of intervals of showers in the center and south of the state, as well as isolated rains in the north of the entity. Hot to very hot environment during the day and warm at night. Northwest winds from 15 to 25 km/h, with gusts greater than 40 km/h.
Weather in Quintana Roo
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies, with a chance of thunderstorms
strong, without ruling out very strong occasional storms, in the north, center and south of the state. Hot to very hot environment during the day and warm at night. Northeast winds from 15 to 25 km/h, with gusts greater than 40 km/h.
The state coordination of Yucatan Civil Protection (Procivy), reported that, for this Thursday, October 16, the entry of tropical maritime air from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico; as well as the influence of a trough over the Yucatán Peninsula, will favor the presence of isolated light rain in the morning in some municipalities of Yucatán, increasing to moderate and strong accompanied by gusts of wind and electrical activity after noon in the northeast and southeast.
The maximum temperature will be 32° to 36°C in the interior of the state and 30° to 32°C in the coastal area.
In his social network account “X”, formerly Twitter, Juan Antonio Palma Solísmeteorologist at the meteorology agency Meteored México, announced that it will be a Thursday with rain and storms scattered through a trough.
Palma Solís added that the influence of a trough, extending from the central portion of the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatán Peninsula, will favor significant rains in several areas of the region during the course of this Thursday.
CDMX Climate
The National Meteorological Service (SMN), in its general forecast, foresees for the Valley of Mexico: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies are forecast during the day. In the morning, fog banks in mountain areas, cold to cool atmosphere in most of the region, with frost in high areas of the State of Mexico and with minimum temperatures below 0 °C in its mountainous areas. During the afternoon, mild to warm atmosphere; probability of rain with intervals of showers in the State of Mexico (southwest) and Mexico City (south), which may be accompanied by electric shocks. The minimum temperature in Mexico City will be 7 to 9 °C and the maximum 23 to 25 °C. For Toluca, Edo. Mex., minimum temperature of 6 to 8 °C and maximum of 20 to 22 °C is expected. Winds of variable direction less than 15 km/h in the region, with gusts of 45 km/h in areas of the State of Mexico and Mexico City. Strong gusts of wind could cause trees and advertisements to fall.
How will the weather be?
The SMN, in its forecast by region, anticipates for the Gulf of Mexico: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies during the day. In the morning, cool to temperate atmosphere, and cool in mountain areas, being cold with temperatures below 0 °C in the mountainous area of Veracruz, being warm on the coasts of the region. During the afternoon, warm to hot atmosphere, and temperate in high areas of Veracruz; heavy occasional rains in Veracruz (regions: Papaloapan, Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca) and Tabasco (west), all with electric shocks; These rains could cause flooding, flooding and landslides, as well as an increase in the levels of rivers and streams.; In addition, showers are forecast in Tamaulipas (south). East component wind of 15 to 25 km/h in the region, with gusts of 40 to 60 in areas of Tamaulipas and gusts of less than 45 km/h in areas of Veracruz and Tabasco.
While, for the Yucatan Peninsula forecast: Partly cloudy to cloudy skies during the day. In the morning, mild to warm atmosphere. During the afternoon, hot atmosphere; very strong occasional rains with electric shocks in Yucatán (northeast) and Quintana Roo (north and east); and strong punctuals with possible electric shocks in Campeche (south); These rains could be accompanied by strong gusts of wind and cause local flooding, flooding and reduced visibility.. Wind from the north and northeast less than 15 km/h in the region, with gusts of up to 40 km/h in areas of Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.