Energy thrives. Energy is power. The military escalation around Iran and the partial collapse of the Hormuz border have made this reality the center of global debate. New war, same dilemma: Europe is thinking about paper in the new world order where others send their energy.
Approximately a fifth of the world’s oil and large volumes of natural gas, one of the main sources of energy on the planet, pass through it. When that flow stops, the markets react. The price of raw meat varies Energy volatility is beginning to dominate the global economic scenario.
The European energy transition was born partly as a response to this vulnerability. Less dependence on imported fuels. More electrification. Cleaner local industry.
But for this transformation to occur, one key condition is needed: an inversion. Y Markets need clear signals for a reversal to occur.
Desde hace dos decadas, el European Emissions Trading System, ETSyou have seen one of these signals.
The principle is simple: prioritize carbon to direct capital to cleaner technologies and more efficient industrial processes. It is an economic signal that influences the decision to cancel thousands of millions of euros.
Most of these projects are based on the assumption that carbon emissions will be more expensive. When this signal is stable, the reversers plan. When things become uncertain, capital freezes.
The European carbon market is located at the heart of the country. Italy has called for the suspension of the ETS in recent weeks, arguing that it undermines the competitiveness of European industry.
The debate is legitimate. Uncertainty does not. Porque Europa is in the midst of a global industrial career. It relies on regulatory instruments such as the ETS instead of large subsidies to the orientation of private inversion. Deactivate this signal and send exactly the wrong message to the market now.
The war in the Middle East is accelerating the energy transition It is not just about climate policy. It is a policy of economic security.
As the world continues to depend on vulnerable energy pathways like the Ormuz extremes, the economy will continue to face geopolitical disruption.
Electrification, renovation and new industrial technologies reinforce this dependence. But only if they are deployed on a large scale.
The Iberian Peninsula has its hands full with what can happen when competitive clean energy meets industrial ambitions. Spain and Portugal are characterized by renewable resources, an industrial base and a rapidly growing clean technology ecosystem. By 2025, clean technology inversion in the region has reached €768 million, the highest level ever recorded. Capital does not disappear, it chooses better. Look for stability, scale and predictability.
Europe cannot be allowed weaken the instrument that drives much of this inversion. This does not mean that ETS should not evolve. This question requires thought and deep debate involving all-or-nothing plans. Reducing the debate to the esque of ganadors and losers is therefore adequate.
However, reform is not the same as destabilization.
Europe can lead the energy transition. But the signal that drives the inversion weakens, there is a risk of funding the transition… others.
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