“Time is time. Don’t give me time to waste“(Barry Gibb).
The Spanish government hides the fragility of economic figures and the non-existent convergence with the European Union with figures that hide a much more difficult situation than anyone would like to admit.
With a record increase in tax revenue of more than 10% to avoid deflating inflation and creating a fiscal burden on the middle class, the government has no fiscal consolidation, has used inflation, tax bills and legal revisions to cover up the deficit and debacle that is occurring in the most vulnerable areas of the Eurozone without converging with the EU.
El Gobierno assumes de que the joint public administration deficit will reach 2.18% by 2025. GDP, 36,780 million euros, “the best number in 18 years”, according to data sent to Eurostat and distributed by Farma.
However, if the gases intended to cover DANA damages are included, the actual increase rises to 40,330 million and the deficit sits at 2.39% of GDP, still well above the balance sheet, target and surplus that actually reduces the debt.
Public gas does not decrease until it rises to 21,811 million euros
The executive sells that number as an assumption of assumed discipline, but its official figures show that the best doesn’t come from the gas side until uneven recruitment due to inflation and entrenchment of taxable bases.
The deficit is actually only easing as the ratio improves and inflates the denominator with inflation that is higher than the eurozone average. Since the deficit is publicly calculated with respect to nominal PIB, the priceless improvement in the number (36,780 million) appears optically better for a given inflation-adjusted nominal PIB.
In 2025, tax revenue at the end of this year was 325,356 million euros, an all-time high, with an increase of 10.4% compared to 2024. The company acknowledges that 1.3 points of this increase can be explained directly the effect of inflation on the tax base and non-deflated types.
Meanwhile so much public gas does not decrease until it rises to 21,811 million eurosreinforcing a structure of persistent imbalances that is supported by cyclical inputs inflated by sudden prices.
If a realistic analysis is done that cleans out the effect of inflation on recession, the deficit was 3.43% of GDPand if DANA taxes and other outliers are fully incorporated, the real value rises to 3.64% of GDP. We are therefore facing an essentially countable adjustment, neither structural nor real.
With Sánchez, the debt is divided into 523,434 million and the cost of the citizen’s interest increases by 40%.
in addition public opinion represents a nominal record. According to the Bank of Spain, the share of public administration in 2025 increased by 4.8% to 78,108 million euros, up to 1,698,681 million. This is the highest level in recent history in absolute terms, clearly at the peak of pre-pandemic volume.
It is much worse because the total debt of the public administration, the accumulated liabilities, exceeds 2,227,135 million. It is certain that the debt/GDP ratio will decrease slightly to 100.8% at the end of 2025, i.e. 0.9 points less than in 2024, but the total liabilities of the general government to PIB will exceed 135% and the Bank of Spain and data for 2025 We show that this improvement comes again from the correction of the end of the nominal denomination to PIB, not subsidized.
El Gobierno español boasts “reducir la deuda”. However, the evidence is clear. WITH Sánchez disperses the debt issue to 523,434 million, costs in the interest of the country will fall by more than 40%, surpassing 42,000 million, and the Treasury will tend to issue at least 75,000 million new more in 2026.
AIReF reports that debt stands at 103.5% of GDP at €1.66 billion in the first quarter of 2025, down just 2.8 points from a year ago, and expects the annual total to rise to around 101.6%.
It is decided, including in an extremely favorable context, low property types, relaxed European tax rules and nominal growth, that Spain only needs one point of the debt/GDP ratio. The “paper redaction” that the government spreads is actually the solution to inflation, which increases costs for future consumers and taxpayers. We are filled with numerator and denominator.
The cost of supporting this volume of blood disappears. Independent estimates put the interest payment at €42,000 million in 2025, more than 40% above 2018 levels. This figure is virtually equivalent to the total corporate tax offset, as highlighted. until now, fiscal policy has been brought to the service of citizens.
The Treasury, for its part, maintains a program of gross emissions exceeding €250,000 million in 2026 and will need to place at least another €75,000 million in 2026 to support the deficit that follows with a very high structural component, according to AIReF.
The sad reality is that the Sánchez government benefited from very lax fiscal regulations, new generation funds and inflation. According to crujir to impuestos los ciudadanos, no real fiscal consolidation was carried out. The European Commission reports that Spain is one of the countries that has reduced its fiscal imbalances the least since 2019.
This is what Sanchista’s propaganda outlet claims Spain will have a smaller deficit than Germany and France by 2026 as a great success. That’s how it’s said Spain is better because other empeoran.
Inflation is a pillar that allows us to hide the reality of a very weakened economy. The government is happy that real GDP has risen to 2.8% in 2025, double that of the Eurozone, according to its own press notes, but GDP per head will continue to rise from 2019, according to the OECD, and balancing the GDP with public gas, debt and immigration is a recipe for disaster.
The key is in the nominal PIB. A combination of high inflation and statistical revisions drives the denominator to calculate deficits and losses. In its Economic Outlook, the OECD warned that inflation in Spain will remain above the eurozone average in 2024-2026, with risks rising due to geopolitical and energy tensions. Recent INE projections put Spain’s CPI at around 3%, compared to an average of 2.6% in the Eurozone, consolidating at Spain as inflation champion among major European economies.
High inflation and a high level of population, given the economic composition, led Spain to lead the Bloomberg Poverty Index.
This inflationary effect is a hidden crime: it artificially increases the tax base, increases income from IRPF and non-deflated indirect taxes, nominally lowers the tax/GDP ratio, and at the same time worsens the purchasing power of businesses and companies.
We are poorer and we applaud more. This progress in the future is sold as a fiscal exit when what is in fact a silent transfer of income from the private sector becomes more hypertrophied.
The official narrative says “convergence” with Europe, but neither the European Commission nor the OECD subscribe to this optimism. In its forecasts, Bruselas notes that although Spanish growth in 2025-2026 will be slightly higher than the Eurozone average, our country maintains a level of per capita rent, productivity and employment well below the Community average.
The OECD agrees in reporting a growth model based on low value services and high tourism, with an increased structural labor market and a growing fiscal position focused on rents and labor consumption. The data is clear.
According to Eurostat, Spain was at eight points of convergence with the EU average in GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power, and by 2025 it is six points behind the European Union average, which is also not good. No one’s chicken hay.
While the government assumes it is “leading growth”, Spain’s economy is not converging to the EU average, which is probably also a great proxy. The latest forecasts of the European Commission and the OECD point to GDP per capita growth below the eurozone average in terms of purchasing power.
Spain will not converge to achieve rents, employment and productivity until it destroys the inflation-deudat disequilibrium below.
In the fiscal plan, Spain ranks among the states with the largest structural and public deficit in the Eurozone, thanks to the statistical effect of the nominal PIB ratio. AIReF advises that the deal with Brussels will not correct the structural component of the deficit and that without a credible gas adjustment the debt will remain at a maximum of 100% of GDP for many years.
In its surveillance information, the European Commission insists that Spain faces “sustainability challenges” in the middle of the square.
The result is a piece of stadium humor. Spain is not consolidating its aspects in a real or sustainable way, nor is it converging with the EU in pursuit of its people; It is destroying its imbalances with inflation, rising debt and record fiscal pressures. When the cycle changes, inflation falls and statistical revisions occurfiscal reality emerges.
If you are neutral, this statist approach has three perverse effects: It distorts the purchasing power of families and businesses, reduces real growth, artificially overstates nominal PIB, distorts the deficit and tax ratios, and harms domestic and taxpayers in particular. futures, in a country where real wages have fallen since 2018.
Being the inflation champion of the Eurozone is not a dream, is it? sudden silence impuestos and general empobrecimiento.
Instead of approving an environment of nominal growth to achieve real fiscal consolidation, the Spanish government preferred to express a margin that prohibits low types and suspended fiscal regulation.
The Spanish economy is now more vulnerable to any shock or financial shock, with no clear convergence with the EU, reflecting that the government has dismantled the main fiscal and monetary stimulus of history.
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