Gas and oil prices have continued to suffer since the start of the war with Iran.
However, it seems that the price of energy could suffer even more, scenarios are planned in which a barrel of crude would exceed even 150 dollars, which would assume the loss of diesel and gas at only 2.4/2.5 euros per liter.
In this scenario, inflation would occur at two points and the shopping cart will increase by 8%.
While this may seem like an unrealistic scenario, there really aren’t that many of us. Above all, Iran seems to be trying to reach the end of Hormuz.
What power does Tehran have to close the loophole, what effects will it have on the international economy, and how could the United States avoid the blockade?
It is virtually impossible for the end of Ormuz to close, al menos de forma permanent. Ormuz is a big bottle because 20% of the raw food consumed in the world circulates.
Gas Filled Petroleum (GLP) tank opening located at the end of Ormuz.
However, the problem will never be definitive. Iran has the capacity to block it, but not permanently.
In the most likely scenario, the end could remain blocked for up to two weeks, enough time for the United States to clear the end.
In Iran, of course, there is no need to actually block the end of Hormuz. Just keep generating the feeling that super gasolines can land in it.
“The US could open the end of the cazaminas boat, listen to the boats and surgically hit the lanzaders and quick launches and derive the original drones.”
You can use floating and underwater mines for this purpose; to show the capacity of anti-buque missiles held in Noor, Qader and Khalij Fars; show quick launch; and above all, make the terrible Sahedo fly through the extreme sky.
It’s certainly true that the scenario is apocalyptic and that Iran doesn’t need to be on the receiving end of the plan for the ships to be intercepted, but you really just have to believe that it can absorb it.
If you finally got it to the edge, you could open up a row with the boats you had, listen to the boats and surgically hit launches and quick launches and mock the original drones.
In any case, just the fear of ships ending up at the bottom of the Persian Gulf can cause panic in oil and logistics companies.
If this scenario comes true, the question is which states will be most affected. The answer is not simple. Countries like the United States and Israel are not directly dependent on oil or gas from the Persian Gulf.
no embargo, a general increase in prices would mean that the effects would be global.
In general, Asian countries, especially China, Japan and South Korea, are most exposed to the instability of the Persian Gulf.
In the case of China, Iranian oil accounts for approximately 13–14% of its total crude oil imports, although Pekin absorbs more than 80–90% of all production exported to Iran.
by Ella China is establishing alternative land routes that avoid the extremes of Ormuz and Malacca.
However, the offers in Ormuz do not only concern Asian countries. Some European countries such as Italy, Greece, Germany and the Low Countries were severely affected.
In the case of Italy and Greece, the problem is that the energy balance is not very diversified and essentially consists of energy coming from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Germany is not as highly concentrated as its neighbors to the south, but its economy has not had a green transition and is still dependent on oil fuels, making it vulnerable to a general spike in oil prices.
Los Países Bajos represents a special case. They do not have the energy dependence of Italy, Greece or Germany. However, the port of Rotterdam has a very significant economic weight for the country, so a blockade scenario would seriously affect its economy.
The case of Spain is special because, yes, it does not depend on raw meat in the area, imports a large amount of gas from QatarSpecifically, Yacimiento shared with Iran which Iranian facilities (Southern Pars) had recently bombed Israel.
The possibilities of a permanent life are decreasing. However, my generalized scenario could result in weeks without ships plying the waters of Hormuz.
Even in the worst case, a true cierre, the United States could open the way, even if it were to be thoroughly completed.
The problem is that within weeks of the permanent cap being lifted, the economic consequences will be dire for the global economy, not just for states that depend on the region for energy.
Therefore, in addition to Iran being cornered and its survival seriously threatened, near Hormuz no interest in either side of the conflict.
*** Alberto Priego is Professor of International Relations at the Pontifical University of Comillas.
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