The Weekend Winners panel discuss their best bets for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on the latest episode – available now on the At The Races YouTube channel.
Seventeen runners are set to go for Europe’s premier horse race, with Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk currently heading the market as she looks to emulate Enable’s feat of an Arc triumph to supplement a stellar third-year-old campaign which included four individual Oaks wins.
France’s main contender Aventure has a potentially unfavourable draw in stall 12, while Byzantine Dream of Japan will depart from stall 15. One time favourite Kalpana goes for Andrew Balding, while William Buick rides Cualificar in the Godolphin blue.
Kate Tracey…
“Not only have I been in a forgiving nature in this week’s show, I’m going to add loyalty into my approach. I tipped Aventure up each-way for the Arc last year when she finished second and also tipped her up ante-post for this year’s renewal a few weeks back. I didn’t necessarily win her to win the Prix Vermeille in the way that she did given Whirl was a 1/2 favourite, but she was keen and gassy enough.
“Although she isn’t getting the allowance, I don’t think this is as tough of a year as last year for the Arc, so why would I side against her? When you look at the independent ratings from this season, you can make the argument she is a better, improved model this time around.
“At 4/1, I’m definitely not going to abandon her now for all my price is nowhere near as good as it was a few weeks ago!”
Sam Boswell…
“After backing Whirl and Estrange ante-post, I’m heading back to the drawing board again. Obviously Kalpana got beat by Whirl but I’ve gone off her chances after the Kempton effort plus the record of first-time headgear in the Arc is not good. Minnie Hauk was a likely replacement for what I’d like to give but I just wonder at 3/1 – Soumillion is obviously a great replacement for Ryan Moore given the race is at ParisLongchamp – I just felt the price was a bit skinny.
“I then went around the houses and thought Gifts was overpriced. He’s drawn in two and you want to be drawn low, and ticks so many boxes. He finished second to Croix Du Nord in his prep run but the trainer is absolutely flying at the moment with a 42% strike rate. We’ve got Mickael Barzalona onboard, the horse loves Longchamp and went through the gears there towards the start of the season. There’s a lot to like about the horse’s chances, I’ll have a bit at 12/1 each-way.
Declan Rix…
“Adventure – she ran a cracker in this race last year. To go as close as she did to Bluestocking, I thought it was a cracking run. She was a bit slow away and that sort of set the tone for her, you always felt she was a little further back and out of her ground but Rossa Ryan gave Bluestocking a wonderful, uncomplicated ride. Rossa was on the rail with Aventure further back, one off the rail. In a game of fine margins, that all adds up. Given it was a race not ran at a strong gallop, it was a reasonable pace and she did really well to get as close as she did.
“I think this is her time of year, it was really interesting to hear her trainer say she hates summer! This is a filly you would be bringing skiing, not taking to the beach! She’s nice and fresh coming here, and we saw that freshness last time out in the Prix Vermeille. She was keen, gassy the whole way and got no cover throughout the whole race. To win as well as she did, I thought it was a big performance. Her draw in 12 makes it potentially a bit different but I’d love to see her get the ride that Rossa Ryan gave to Bluestocking last year.
“She’s an older filly, she’s more experienced but isn’t the biggest so would need a bit of luck if she’s in the hustle and bustle. Getting some cover should really suit her and this is her time of year, so allez allez allez Aventure!”
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