The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has crossed a critical threshold this weekend, placing the region before the real threat of a open nuclear war.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s recent warning of extend the maritime crisis from the Persian Gulf to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has set off all the alarms in Western governments.
This warning affects the operation of the Suez Canal, a key route for trade between Asia and Europe, while Donald Trump’s government analyzes possible de-escalation routes.
This divergence of messages between Washington and Tel Aviv It coincides with growing pressure from energy markets and European powers.
The possibility of conflict reaching and affecting critical shipping points not only redefines military objectives, but threatens the stability of global supply.
The new hostage of Tehran
Located between Yemen and Djibouti, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is 30 kilometers wide and channels the 10% of maritime commercial traffic and 5 million barrels of oil every day.
If Iran, through its direct influence or its regional allies, manages to close or destabilize this point, the Suez Canal would be unusable.
Ships would be forced to skirt the entire African continent around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds 15 days of navigation, skyrocketing costs and ultimately causing global inflation.
According to reports from the BBCthis ‘hybrid war’ tactic allows Iran to project power without a formal declaration of war, using the stability of the global economy as a pressure factor.
The statements issued from Tehran are framed in a context of economic sanctions that affect its crude oil exports.
The objective of these maneuvers, according to analysts consulted by Euronewsis to increase Iran’s pressure capacity at future negotiating tables.
According to analysts consulted by euronews, These actions seek to improve Iran’s position in future international talks.
The Trump Paradox
From Washington, the US administration has issued different statements on the state of the conflict.
On Friday, while heading to Florida, the president stated that The United States is “destroying” Iran’s industrial and military base and that he has no interest in a ceasefire.
However, hours later, he published on his social networks that the objectives are close to being met and that he is considering “reducing military efforts.”
Donald Trump’s message in Truth Social
According to Israel, the offensive against the Iranian regime has made significant progress in the degradation of its defensive and government infrastructure.
General Zamir, Chief of the General Staff of the Defense Forces Israel stated in an official statement that The army is “halfway” to its objectives.
Zamir also stated that Israel is approving new battle plans against Hezbollah in Lebanon to establish security barriers at the borders.
maritime security
Faced with the need to patrol hostile routes on a prolonged basis, the United States government has requested a greater involvement of its allies.
President Trump has noted that surveillance of the Strait of Hormuz must be shared by nations that use the route for trade.
Trump has indicated that US forces will act as support but not as sole responsible for security at the pass.
This position coincides with intelligence reports indicating the persistence of hybrid warfare capabilities by Iran, including the use of drones and sea mines.
These assets, although low cost, have the capacity to increase operational risk for shipping companies, conditioning the viability of insurance coverage and the regular flow of goods through Suez.
He current conflict mixes direct military pressure from the triple axis of the US, Israel and Iran with the problem of security in world tradeespecially through the Suez Canal.
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