Designed as a tailored suit for the General De Gaullecalled to power in the midst of the Algerian crisis, the French presidential regime has survived since then, an island in the middle of all the parliamentary regimes in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic passed the test of street revolts of the caliber of May 1968 or that of the yellow vests of the winter of 2018. And it allowed the socialist alternation embodied by François Mitterrand who had previously denounced the system as a “permanent coup d’état.”
The Gordian knot of impasse French lies in the tripolar composition of the National Assembly that emerged from the early legislative elections of 2024. Macron had been re-elected two years earlier by a large majority of French people against the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen. A campaign without major debates marked by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia Vladimir Putinadmired by both Le Pen and the third-place finisher in the first round, the leader of the extreme left, Jean Luc Mélenchon.
Macron, emboldened by his second presidential victory and who has never governed a political party, did not know how to transform the test of his individual victory with an absolute parliamentary majority into the legislative elections that follow the presidential election since term was shortened from seven to five years to prevent, precisely, the president of the Republic from having to cohabit with a prime minister from the opposite camp. 250 deputies was not a bad number to have achieved a legislative pact with the approved right that, with its 58 seats, allowed us to surpass the bar of absolute majority (289 seats).
Macron managed to get a prime minister from the left wing of his group, Elisabeth Borneapprove a pension reform that appeared in their electoral platform and that delayed the retirement age to 64 years. The police had calmed the anger of the street protesters. The Assembly, in a tumultuous session, endorsed the reform thanks to the use of article 49.3 of the French Constitution which allows the executive to pass a legal text if a motion of censure does not prevail.
but the government had lost the battle of public opinion. And this was expressed forcefully the first time it could, in the elections to the European Parliament in 2024: National Meeting (extreme right RN) obtained 30 seatsMacron’s supporters, 13 minutes; the socialists led by Raphaël Glucksman came third with 13 other deputies; Insoumise France (LFI, extreme left) remained at 9; the Republicans (EPP) in six and the environmentalists in five.
One hour after the results were published, Macron dissolved the National Assembly: “the growth of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation and also for Europe…For this reason, I have decided to once again give citizens the possibility of choosing our parliamentary future.”
The right-wing candidate in the presidential election, Valérie Pécresseaccused Macron of “play Russian roulette.” And in fact, the shot backfired on the French head of state. Wanting to catch rivals off guard and/or voters tired, he imposed an express election, three Sundays later. He was looking for an executive with whom he could get along well, enlisted under the banner of “the presidential majority”, from the classic right to socialism. Left out would be the two extremes of the political arc, Le Pen and Mélenchon, extremist right and left.
Things started out looking good for Macron: the French right exploded after its leader’s decision, Éric Cowsto form an electoral alliance with Le Pen. Instead, the socialists did the opposite of what was planned, they joined forces with Mélenchon’s rebels, the ecologists and the communists in a New Popular Front.
With the expectations of the extreme right at a high, the rest of the forces forged a pact of mutual withdrawal in the second round that prevented Le Pen’s group from reaching an absolute majority. To this day they are still the largest group in the lower house with 123 seats to which are added 15 of the deserters of the classic right. Total, 138 seats
Los Macron supporters total 91 minutes Presidddlos Por Gabriel Attalthe youngest prime minister of the republic and who has marked differences with his mentor, Macron. The 36 centrists of the former prime minister are part of the presidential majority François Bayrou and the 34 deputies of the prime minister Édouard Philippe. Total 161 seats. Its alliance with the right approved by the EPP, which has 50 deputies, only adds up to 211 seats, far from the absolute majority but greater than that of the other large ideological blocs.
The bench on the left of the chamber is made up of 71 rebels, 69 socialists, 38 environmentalists and 17 communists. There are 195 deputies. This is what has been called tripolarization. The Assembly is completed by 22 parliamentarians who cannot be classified between centrists, independentists and regionalists of various stripes and 9 not registered in any other group.
Thus, Macron appointed Prime Minister Michel Barniera veteran of the right who could only last half a year in office, before being overthrown by the first motion of censure to triumph in France since 1962. After his fall, the President of the Republic wanted to appoint Sébastien Lecornu but he made the mistake of trying to explain it to the centrist Bayrou, a favorite of Parisian political liars. The interview at the Elysée lasted several hours, at the end of which, Bayrou came out with the task of naming a government. With the initial benevolence of the extreme right and some concessions to the socialists, he overcame motions of censure and achieved budgets for the current year.
Whether because he was not willing to go through the same ordeal or because of his deep conviction of the need for a budget for 2026 with 44,000 million savings At the beginning of September he raised a question of confidence with the House. After losing it he went home, or rather to the mayor’s office of Pau, a position that he had made compatible with that of prime minister.
We are in October and it is finally time for Lecornu. Minister of various minor things and of Defense, major words. Faithful among the faithful to the president, Lecornu already accumulates several records: the most short-lived prime minister of the Fifth Republic, the first to be re-appointed by President Macron (on Friday night while the French team beat Azerbaijan) after resigning before his ministers took office (last Tuesday).
Sebastien Lecornu, Prime Minister of France.
Between his first resignation and his reappointment, Lecornu accepted a mission from President Macron: to check if there was enough money in the Assembly to support a budget. He responded positively on Wednesday night while making it clear on prime-time television that he did not want the premiership. Two days of consultations later, including an unusual meeting at the Elysée with all the political leaders except Le Pen and Mélenchon, and here is the “soldier monk”, according to his own definition at the service of the cause.
Your roadmap includes train a new executive this weekendapprove in the Council of Ministers next Monday a new budget for 2026 that should be presented to the Chamber on Wednesday at the latest. It is worth knowing that in France the parliamentary presentation and discussion is subject to a precise calendar and that extending the previous year’s budget requires a special law, in addition to being considered proof of parliamentary weakness.
Meanwhile, he must read to the Chamber a declaration of general policy… and wink at the socialists so that they do not add their votes to those of the rebels, communists and environmentalists who have already announced the presentation of a motion of censure to which Le Pen and her followers have sworn to support. According to various calculations in the French media, Lecornu needs at least 25 socialist deputies not to join the maneuver at both ends of the Assembly.
For now, the Republicans of the classic right have announced that they do not want to be part of the new cabinet. They will study each government initiative case by case and decide on the day. Do not believe that this is proof of political Machiavellianism. Rather, it is that they do not agree among themselves.
Lecornu thanked this Friday for the services provided by his leader Bruno Retailleauacting Minister of the Interior and dynamite of the short-lived government that failed to take office last week. Lecornu spoke at the end of a visit to a gendarmerie yesterday, Saturday at noon. At his side, the prefect of Paris, Laurent Núñez, whom many already see as a future successor at the head of the Interior portfolio.
Macron has assured that his new prime minister will have carte blanche to form his cabinet and make the necessary concessions to the socialists to avoid immediate censure. He has some asset: his popularity against Macron at very low times. And the fear of many deputies that if he fails, Macron will choose to dissolve the assembly again.
New Popular Front
It is clear that the socialists would prefer not to have to appear before their voters again with the New Popular Front, which they prefer to consider dead. Mélenchon would prefer Macron to resign and presidential elections will be called right now. To be a candidate for the fourth time, of course. It is the hypothesis that the markets fear most and that the head of state has always ruled out.
Louis Hausalterchronicler of Le Figaro which covers the Elysée, has just published a book titled The lightning and the ashes which narrates “The twilight of macronism told from within.”
In it he describes a Macron “obsessed by posterity” and for his possible return in 2032. Because the French constitution limits the number of mandates to two consecutive ones. To date, the two presidents who served two successive terms, Mitterrand and Chirac, were not physically fit to face a third term after missing a presidential turn. But in 2032, Macron will be 54 years old.