Donald Trump and his advisors, Steve Witkoff y Jared Kushnerlanded in Sharm el-Sheikh to sign the peace agreement between Israel and Hamas in the company of twenty international leaders after an intense weekend, in which both Witkoff and Kushner were feted and cheered in the streets of Tel Aviv.
Although Trump is a highly controversial and criticized figure in Europe, his popularity in the Middle East is enormous. It is so among the Arab monarchies – and without that popularity the Abraham Accords of 2020 or the unanimous support of the Arab League for the American peace plan cannot be understood – but it is even more so in Israel, a country that lives in a state of constant political upheaval and in which the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahuis as adored as it is questioned by civil society.
Of course, if it were up to the citizens of Israel and governments allied to the Palestinian cause, the peace plan would end with an independent authority governing Gaza, guaranteeing Israel’s security and managing foreign investment in the Mediterranean enclave. Something that, in turn, would allow Egypt, Jordan, Syria and other countries in the region to get rid of the problem of hosting hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees.
Netanyahu and Hamas absent
Another thing is, however, those most responsible for the conflict, who are the ones who have always put a damper on the negotiation wheels.
The so-called “Trump Plan” does not differ in essence from what they already proposed Antony Blinken y Joe Biden at the time. What has changed has been, firstly, Trump’s persuasiveness and, secondly, Netanyahu’s clumsiness in attacking Doha, which could have meant a completely intolerable escalation for the United States and which has undoubtedly accelerated the process.
There are those who believe that Netanyahu has accepted the plan convinced that Hamas would reject it. There are also those who maintain that Hamas has said yes to the agreement without any real intention of abandoning power in Gaza or handing over its weapons.
In any case, what seems clear is that neither of the two parties is particularly proud of the agreement reached or, at least, does not want to stage it. Neither the Israeli prime minister will be in Egypt nor will there be official representation of the Islamist group.
The unofficial excuse is that they do not want to coincide with common enemies such as Mahmud Abas and delegates of the Palestinian Authority. The truth is that it seems more like they fear that their most radical followers will take a toll on them for what they might consider a betrayal.
No matter how much Trump repeats that “there is no turning back” and has staged this great international summit with dozens of countries, the doubt about the next steps remains open.
The difficulties of a Gaza without Hamas
Because, beyond the charisma and capacity for conviction of the American president, the political problems remain where they were.
On the one hand, Hamas has released the hostages and is in a very weak negotiating position, both due to the high number of casualties in its ranks and the critical situation of its main ally, Iran. That said, when an authoritarian organization controls every nook and cranny of a society for two decades, it’s difficult to change everything overnight.
It is not yet clear what role they will play Qatar y Türkiyethe other two sponsors of the group. What is said in public is often not confirmed in private.
Is Hamas really ready to simply disappear or will it do something similar to the Taliban, who abandoned power in Afghanistan but took refuge in Doha to prepare for their return in 2021? And even more so, will he agree to give up power or, in the worst case scenario, collaborate with the new international administration that is being created? Hamas knows every tunnel in the Strip, knows where the arsenals are and controls every level of the administration… or what remains of it.
In other words, Hamas must not just step aside. He must also inform and advise those who replace him, knowing that they will not be part of the new order. It is an Islamist organization with a declared mission: to destroy Israel.
After two years of prolonged bleeding, thinking that it will facilitate the process is too optimistic.
No to the two-state solution
On the Israeli side, the debate on the two-state solution is not new either. The Likud opposes it, and its ultra-Orthodox partners directly support the annexation of all territories controlled by the Palestinian Authority.
Up to 63% of Israelis, according to a Gallup poll published in August, are against it. And yet, the “Trump Plan” seems to guide the future towards that hypothesis, the one preferred by the United Nations and by the US Administration itself since the times of Jimmy Carter.
During his successive terms since 1996, Netanyahu has chosen to weaken the Palestinian Authority out of fear that a strong, cohesive government could pose a threat to Israel. Although his allies have tried to convince him otherwise – that a Palestinian state with a reasonable government that recognizes Israel would guarantee regional security – mistrust continues to outweigh any political calculation.
For an autonomous government to rebuild Gaza politically, socially and economically, Israel’s help is essential. Will you have it? It seems difficult as long as Netanyahu remains prime minister and depends on Itamar Ben True y Bezalel Smotrich as coalition partners.
The process will have to be demonstrated with facts: the United States will have to get fully involved, the Arab countries will have to convince Tel Aviv that a strong Palestine is not a threat and both parties will have to make an educational effort with their respective populations.
The first gesture, it is worth insisting, does not invite optimism. At a moment that the world perceives as historic, the absence of both parties and their refusal to coincide with those who must lead the next step in Gaza are a bad sign. Trump insists that he is prepared to move on to the second phase; The question is whether those interested are also interested.