The death of Raila Odinga, Kenya’s most prominent opposition leader, has created uncertainty within his party and President Ruto’s government, with veteran Senator Uboro Odinga, Raila’s brother, appointed interim leader to lead one of Africa’s most loyal voting bases.
Odinga’s death shocked and transformed the Kenyan political landscape. He was an opposition leader who for decades dominated Kenya’s democratic struggles and opposition movements, leaving behind a party and political arena in a state of confusion and change.
Since founding the Orange Democratic Movement in 2005, Odinga has remained an undisputed leader, leading the party through five presidential elections, countless alliances, and multiple seasons of resistance.
His death came months before his expected celebration of the 20th anniversary of the founding of the Orange Democracy Movement in November, which was scheduled to be held in the coastal city of Mombasa, one of his symbolic strongholds of support.
Odinga died without publicly naming a successor, leaving his party divided over whether to continue supporting President William Ruto’s broad-based government.
But on Thursday, Odinga’s party’s national executive appointed his brother, Siaya Senator Oboro Odinga, as interim leader until a permanent successor is chosen.
The alliance between the Orange Democratic Movement and the government has blurred the traditional lines between opposition and power, and now the party’s future and role in the 2027 elections in which Ruto is expected to seek re-election are uncertain.
The battle to succeed Odinga
At the heart of the political turmoil stands Edwin Sifuna, the outspoken secretary-general of the Orange Democratic Movement party, who called for unity during the mourning period but vowed not to support Ruto’s bid for a second term.
Sifuna, who leads a growing faction of young MPs angry at the party’s alliance with the government, has quietly launched a new political movement called Kenya Moja, presenting it as an alternative outside the Orange Democracy Movement and the nucleus of a generational political shift in the Kenyan opposition.
Political analyst Dismas Mokwa says Raila’s death represents a severe blow to the future of the Orange Democracy Movement, which now faces deep internal divisions.
“The ODM party was Raila, and Raila was the ODM party. The party is likely to split in the future,” he adds.
Who fills the void?
Appointing Raila’s successor as ODM leadership is the party’s biggest challenge. His three deputies – Godfrey Osotsi (Senator Vihiga), Simba Arati (Governor of Kisii), and Abdul Samad Nasir (Governor of Mombasa) – were chosen mainly to achieve regional balance, but analysts believe that none of them has the national presence that Odinga enjoyed.
Analyst Wycliffe Odera points to Kisumu Governor Anyang Nyong’o, a long-time ally and first secretary-general of the party, as the most likely successor.
“Nyong’o has the institutional memory of the Orange Democracy Movement and is seen as a unifier who can bring together the old guard and the new generation,” he says.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, another prominent ODM figure, is also seen as a possible successor. A long-time ally and rights advocate, he shares Raila’s reformist streak and boldness to speak truth to power.
Battle for Nyanza leadership
Outside the ODM, Odinga’s death leaves a void in the heart of the Lwa-Nyanza region, where he had been the most prominent political leader since inheriting the leadership from his father, Kenya’s first vice president, Gramogi Odinga, in 1994.
The region, which has voted as a single bloc for decades, now faces the question of whether its next leader will come from the Odinga family or from a new generation.
In 2023, Raila’s elder brother, Senator Oboro Odinga, announced his support for Energy Minister Opio Wandaye as a potential successor in the region. But young voters support MP Paul Ongeli, known as “Babu Owino,” whom they see as a representative of a generational shift.
“Raila did not appoint anyone,” says Odera. “His message was clear: whoever wants leadership must deserve it. He created a platform for learning, not inheritance.”
Who will be the next opposition leader?
Raila’s death has created division and a lack of direction within the Kenyan opposition. His party’s decision to join Ruto’s government after the 2024 protests blurred the line between opposition and governance, creating confusion about who the opposition now represents.
“It will take decades to find a courageous opposition leader like Odinga,” says analyst Ochul. “His absence will lead to a new style of opposition politics.”
Among the figures seeking to fill the void are: long-time ally and former running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, former Vice President Rigathi Gachagwa, former Justice Minister Martha Karua, and former Interior Minister Fred Matiang’i.
They are all competing for a role that seemed to be reserved for one man, Raila.
The fate of Ruto’s broad-based government
Raila’s death may also destabilize the fragile alliance he helped build with President Ruto. After last year’s protests, Raila’s support was crucial to stabilizing the government and calming the unrest.
The agreement gave a number of Raila’s allies senior ministerial positions, and was seen as a truce between Kenya’s two most powerful political camps.
“Raila was the guarantor of Ruto’s presidency,” says Mokwa. “He saved Ruto’s government. Without him, the coalition might disintegrate.”
Now, after his departure, the balance that held that alliance together appears to have become more fragile.