This week, this Monday, the average price of common road diesel is expected to fall by around 13 cents per liter, the biggest drop since the new conflict against Iran and the Middle East broke out, but even so, the cost of diesel remains 22% above what it was before this war (before February 28), according to DN calculations.
In simple 95 gasoline, the worsening has been great over the last month and a half, but it is less aggressive than in diesel. However, filling the tank this Monday remains much more expensive (more than 11%) than before the US and Israeli attack on Iran.
Thus, already counting on government subsidies, filling a 50-liter tank of a (simple) diesel car should cost 6.8 euros less (6.5% less at the beginning of this week compared to the previous one, but compared to the end of February, the bill to fill the tank will cost 17 euros more, this Monday.
In the case of gasoline 95 (simple), the weekly relief felt this Monday when filling up the car will be just 1.7 euros per 50 liters (1.7% less), but the current bill, even with government subsidies, remains well above what it was before the start of the war because, in the case of gasoline, filling the tank costs 9.6 euros more, on average, now than at the end of February, DN accounts show based on data from the fuel sector (State and companies), that is, General Directorate of Energy/Ministry of Finance and National Association of Fuel Dealers (ANAREC).
According to a decree from the Ministry of Finance published last Friday, the Government decided to reduce the extraordinary discount on the Tax on Petroleum and Energy Products (ISP) on diesel by 1.5 cents because, supposedly, diesel import prices fell a lot last week with some signs of easing the crisis in the Persian Gulf, with Iran initially announcing (on Friday) that the Strait of Hormuz was open.
Meanwhile, during the weekend, especially this Sunday, the Estreito closed again.
In the case of gasoline, the Treasury decided to maintain the same discount for this week that was in force last week, in the wake of the prospect that next week there will be a slight drop in the 95 liter.
“Faced with the prospect that next week there will be a significant drop in the price of road diesel and a slight reduction in the price of unleaded gasoline, the government has decided to adjust the extraordinary and temporary discount on the ISP in force applicable to diesel while maintaining the value of the discount applicable to unleaded gasoline”, says the ordinance published in the Official Gazette of the Union, Friday night.
Oil is already scarce: pumps closed in parts of Asia and Africa
In any case, several analysts consider that this relief should be short-lived given the great hostility and distrust that reigns in the Gulf and in the markets.
International oil and gas markets begin this new week in a state of high tension, marked by still high prices, strong volatility and an almost total dependence on the evolution of the war in the Middle East.
As mentioned, despite some relief in recent days, most analysts consider that the fundamentals remain fragile and that geopolitical risk remains embedded in prices. In other words, energy inflation is on its way to becoming something structural.
In oil, in addition to the issue of still very high prices, concern is spreading regarding the physical supply of the product.
For example, in several Asian and African countries (such as Mozambique) there are gas stations closed because they no longer have fuel to sell.
After a historic March, in which the International Energy Agency (IEA) classified the current disruption as “the most serious ever recorded”, global production suffered a drop of more than 10 million barrels per day, largely due to attacks on infrastructure and restrictions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth (20%) of the world’s crude transits.
During this period, the prices of physical reference crude for Europe (the so-called dated Brent) reached over 140 dollars per barrel, well above the prices of future contracts, in a clear sign that the scarcity of oil for later refining is a real thing, it is happening in several parts of the globe, such as in some African countries (as is the aforementioned case of Mozambique) and Asian countries.
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