He is a very experienced submariner. In a serious security crisis, what is the true deterrent value of the Portuguese submarine fleet?
If we consider the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, Portuguese submarines represent a highly effective deterrent. Their combination of range and stealth forces potential adversaries to exercise extreme caution, making them a crucial instrument for national and regional security.
The Armed Forces modernization plan is budgeted at 5.57 billion euros, although some estimates suggest that around 11 billion euros are needed. Where should Portugal invest first — and why has modernization lagged behind? Or has there been any progress within that budget?
We must prioritize investment in our naval and air forces, given Portugal’s geographical position and our role in NATO and European collective defense. At the same time, we need to reshape our defense capabilities for the new era of missiles — offensive systems to deter potential adversaries and defensive systems to prevent attacks.
Until now, budget constraints have severely limited Portugal’s defense capabilities, as they have across much of Europe. It is crucial that the public understand that entering a war imposed by an enemy that was not deterred at the right time would be much more costly—economically, strategically, and in terms of human lives and national independence.
From a military point of view, what are the most important lessons that Portugal should learn from the current war involving Iran?
The clearest lesson from recent events is that our allies do not always act in unison. Disagreements within the Western coalition are creating fractures that leave Europe in a dangerously fragile position.
We need to face a difficult truth: Europe cannot rely solely on others for its security. We need to build our own defense capabilities — independent, robust and reliable. In doing so, we remain fully committed to NATO, but we ensure that no country, even a non-European NATO member, can pressure or blackmail us.
It’s not about ambition — it’s about survival. Europe needs to invest decisively in defense. Our security, our freedom and our strategic future depend on it. The time to act is now.
What are your suggestions for creating a national public service that includes young people, with a military option, as some other European countries are doing?
During the campaign, I made it clear that I do not support mandatory military service. Instead, I believe it should be voluntary. There are effective ways to build a strong reserve force from the personnel who leave the military every year, and we must move decisively towards this.
If a serious threat arises, we must be prepared to recruit and train additional personnel quickly. But the base must be a professional and volunteer force complemented by a capable reserve, ensuring flexibility and readiness to defend our country.
Europe still depends heavily on the United States for defense. Given US ammunition and equipment shortages, what is your level of concern about Europe’s military readiness?
The Trump administration will remain in power for at least three more years. The question is: can Europe afford to wait that long? We must act now to strengthen our military capabilities and resources — quickly and decisively.
We must follow two complementary plans: a medium- and long-term strategy to build sustainable defense capabilities and a short-term plan for the next three years to ensure immediate readiness.
If we delay, others may see an opportunity to act before Europe is completely rearmed. This is why we must focus on rapidly increasing our equipment and ammunition stocks, ensuring they are maintained at a high level of readiness to immediately respond to any threat.
Spain refused to allow American forces to use its bases for war-related operations and called for de-escalation. Does this complicate European or NATO coordination? How do you evaluate the position taken by Spain?
In a way, Spain has taken steps in this direction, and has done so in the past. But, as Portuguese, we must remember that we are not just Europeans – we are also an Atlantic nation. Our long-standing relationship with the United States is a strategic asset that must be preserved, given the deep and enduring ties and common geopolitical interests we share.
We must keep in mind that administrations come and go, but the interests of nations remain. For this reason, we need to act with prudence, forward thinking and careful diplomacy.
If attacks on Türkiye were to intensify, could this trigger NATO’s collective defense clause and drag the alliance into a wider conflict?
I think what you are saying makes sense: Iran will likely calculate the consequences carefully rather than recklessly escalate the conflict. There is already evidence that Iran’s actions are calculated and targeted, rather than random or suicidal — its initial responses focused on regional attacks and pressure points rather than attempts to expand the war globally.
In fact, many experts now describe the conflict not as an uncontrollable spiral, but as a controlled, strategic exchange in which both sides are trying to manage the escalation. Analysts note that while Iran has a significant ability to retaliate, its military options are limited and has so far chosen actions that do not automatically provoke a full-scale global confrontation.
At the same time, the evolving situation has had major effects on energy markets and regional dynamics, such as threats to the Gulf’s energy infrastructure and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, which suggests that Iran understands that an extended escalation could be costly not only for its own economy, but also for its regional position and global stability.
Therefore, while there is always a risk of escalation in any major conflict, many analysts believe that Iran is likely to be strategic, rather than irrational, in its decisions, calculating which actions will harm or help its long-term position.
China has important economic interests linked to Iran, particularly in the energy sector. It has also invested billions of euros in the region. What would be the impact of this war on China — and could Beijing eventually become more directly involved?
I do not believe that China will be directly involved in the conflict. It may provide support to Iran in the form of funding or weapons, but direct military involvement seems unlikely.
However, for China, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and any disruption to its access to the region’s oil and gas would pose a significant problem. Energy security is a critical concern for Beijing, and any blockade or restriction could have serious economic consequences.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that there were discussions and negotiations with the aim of reaching an agreement, involving the United States, China and Europe. These conversations are likely to focus on managing the escalation, ensuring the flow of energy, and establishing a framework to prevent the conflict from expanding regionally or globally.
How do you see the end of this war — and what lasting consequences could this have for Portugal and European security? Do you fear this will lead to a broader conflict and last longer than the US anticipated?
This war is not like the conflicts in Europe, like the war in Ukraine. It’s a different kind of war — one that affects everyone, particularly through its impact on oil and gas, the foundation of the ancient global economy. We still largely live in a carbon-based world, and disruptions to energy supply ripple across every country, every market and every life.
I believe that the world is changing the way we conduct international relations. Some countries are already envisioning new opportunities in this changing landscape, shaped by the Trump administration’s policies and Netanyahu’s approach to the Middle East. These changes will have a profound impact on the future. Even as we speak, the world is being reshaped, and the choices we make today will determine the path we take tomorrow.
Given the economic impact of the recent floods and the instability created by the war with Iran, do you believe that holding the presidential election in April rather than January would change the results in your favor?
I don’t speculate on political outcomes. I accept that there is a new president and, as a Democrat, I welcome this development.
Given your experience, knowledge and talent as an organizer, how do you intend to contribute to Portugal in this new phase of your life?
I am now committed to building a large cluster of robotic warfare drones here in Portugal. This initiative will not only strengthen our defense capabilities but also help modernize our economy and prepare our country for the future.
Robotics will have a profound impact on civilian life. In a country with a relatively small population, investing in robotic production is essential to improving the quality of life — helping retirees, reducing the workload of factory workers and increasing overall efficiency. This is not optional; It is the path we must follow.
I am determined to pave this path and contribute significantly to the development and security of my country.
How did the United States get stranded in the Strait of Hormuz?
I believe that there was a lack of preparation on the part of the United States in the political dimension of this intervention, and not in the military. The likely consequences of hostilities were predictable, and I am confident that the American military anticipated them.
However, political leaders do not always heed the advice of the military or technocrats. In this case, I think it was a political miscalculation, and the world is now suffering the consequences of that mistake.
How will the war end?
This war will eventually end because the economic costs will be too high. At some point, all parties — including the United States — will have a strong interest in ending the conflict.
(Article originally published in English in ‘Lisbon Diaries’, available on Substack)
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