The PS Congress confirmed what was already intuited: José Luís Carneiro may be, institutionally, an undisputed leader in the party – no one came forward against him -, but politically he is far from consensual. The formal acceptance of the leadership lacks an evident dose of enthusiasm, with a significant part of the interventions in Viseu pointing out the lack of a clear strategic alignment. No one attacked Carneiro head on, but there was no lack of clear warnings: more courage was asked, more voice in the opposition, greater affirmation as an alternative government…
Carneiro faces a classic paradox in moments of transition: the difficulty of the context is recognized, after the electoral defeat and the wear and tear of years of governance, but a mobilizing narrative is called for that repositions the party as a credible alternative for power.
The question that dominates the internal debate is clear: how to deal with the AD Government and its relationship with Chega? The narrative of a “de facto alliance” was repeated, with the accusation that the Executive governs with Chega throughout the year and turns to the PS only to make the State Budget viable. The reality shows that, in fact, Chega has been Montenegro’s preferred partner to advance sensitive governance issues, while the PS and Carneiro’s famous letters are ignored by the prime minister. And the choice of judges for the STF now appears as a defining moment.
Within the party, at least two conflicting lines emerge. The toughest defends the rupture: if the PSD approaches Chega, the PS must clearly move away and “be on the other side of the street”, as summarized by Augusto Santos Silva, former president of the AR. Another, more “institutional”, highlights the need to guarantee governability, even in adverse conditions, as pointed out by the re-elected president of the party, Carlos César, defending the PS’s responsibility in “making the Government as bad as possible”.
The party’s strategy plays between these two positions. But the problem goes deeper. The PS faces obvious difficulties in attracting young people and new voters, and needs to be able to present new and mobilizing ideas for the country, as several socialists have complained – including the former leader of the Socialist Youth, Costa Matos, and his popular motion.
Externally, Carneiro’s leadership faces a difficult balance: as Francisco Assis highlighted, the PS must be capable of being an opposition “of compromises and ruptures”. In other words, maintaining the aura of responsibility without becoming the Government’s crutch and enhancing one’s personality without falling into discredit with the protest party. Anything short of that could push the party into a long political winter. Sitting around waiting for the natural erosion of governance is risking seeing this capitalized on by other, more active voices in the opposition.
On the other hand, internally, the pressure is no less: the socialist leader knows that he has three years to build a renewed PS ready for the 2029 electoral train (European, legislative and municipal), but he must also be sure that, when the elections are on the near horizon, the internal opposition will not be limited to messages about leadership style. Some of those who are now keeping a low profile, after the wear and tear of António Costa’s years of governance and Pedro Nuno Santos’ failed affirmation, are closely watching the opportunity to move forward and Carneiro knows that he risks dealing with the specter of “Insurance 2014”. Until then, your PS has to keep going.
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