The ‘Sanchista’ Golob wins the elections in Slovenia but will have difficulty forming a Government due to the success of the ‘Trumpista’ Jansa

Golob will not have it easy since he will have to agree with the center-right. With the results of the elections, the formation of Golob would have 29 seatsbeing the political force that has lost the most parliamentary support at the polls, compared to that achieved in 2022.

The executive headed by Golob has been very critical during his mandate with Israel, becoming one of the first European countries to recognize the Palestinian state and harshly criticizing the Israeli government.

Their parliamentary partners, to their left, have not improved the result either, with the social democrats remaining at six (they had seven) and the ultra-left formation, Left, European partners of United Leftmaintaining the five representatives they had in parliament.

In fact, his result has been worse than that given by the exit poll, which pointed to a victory close to 30%, with his main opponent, Janez Jansa, at 27.5%.

Finally, the victory of the GS was only 0.5 points above its rival. The GS had 41 of the 90 representatives who form the lower house of the Slovenian parliament, so Golob’s electoral decline represents a serious setback for the aspirations of re-electing the executive.

El ‘trumpista’ Jansa favorito

Despite not winning the elections, the populist right-wing candidate, Jansa, has serious options to return to power, which would be his fourth time at the head of the Slovenian executive.

He Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by Jansa, has remained at 28.1%, just five tenths away from achieving victory, in a scenario that shows how fragmented the Slavic country is.

Despite the short defeat at the polls, although in what can be considered a technical tie, Jansa is the favorite to be prime minister.

If it manages to add its 28 deputies, with the 9 from the right-wing coalition led by New Slovenia and the six from Democracy, a center-right split from the SDS led by Anze Logarthe former leader of Jansa, would achieve 44 out of 90, just two seats away from an absolute majority.

The formation of Jansa and that of New Slovenia, led by Jernej Vrtovecshare a parliamentary group in the European Parliament, although their theses are very different, with Jansa located close to the positions of the European extreme right on migration policy.

In addition to the necessary support of these conservative formations, Jansa will have to actively or passively seek an agreement with the big surprise of election night. The populist and anti-vaccine movement, Resni.ca (TRUE), which has entered the Slavic parliament with five deputies.

Jansa, considered a ‘Trumpist’ for his position close to the president of the United Stateswith an anti-immigration policy and a significant rejection of the Brussels theses, becomes the favorite for prime minister, over the winner of the elections.

If he returns to power, it would be a challenge for the European Commissionsince Jansa, during his previous mandates, has been a headache, especially in immigration policy.

Its main difference with respect to the position maintained by the Hungarian president, Viktor Orbánlies in the support that Jansa has not hesitated to offer to Ukraine, with explicit support for kyiv in the face of the sympathetic stance of Hungary regarding Moscow.

In any case, governability seems difficult, since since the formation of Logar they have ruled out possible support for any of the candidates, pointing out that none is the solution to the problems of the Slovenians.

The opposition leader can achieve, if he agrees with these three political formations, a position he held in three different periods (2004-2008, 2012-2013 y 2020-2022).

Golob, Sanchez ally

Thus, for the current Minister Golob, the main option to revalidate his government is to agree to a pact with the conservative party. New Sloveniaan agreement that seems difficult, since this parliamentary group can agree to its right.

It seems difficult to reach any agreement with the other parties, since while the party that has burst into the Slavic parliament by surprise, Resni.cais located on the extreme right, the Democracy coalition has rejected any support for Golob.

Liberal Golob’s potential fall in Slovenia It would be a hard setback for Pedro Sánchez and its policy of alliances with European partners, since it would be a new country in the hands of sovereign forces, contrary to the positions defended by the Spanish executive.

Since Golob came to power, he has held different meetings and meetings with the socialist president, with whom he has forged an important alliance on international matters.

The two have maintained the defense of progressive positions in social policy, alignment in strategic debates within the EU and coincidences in foreign policy, such as the recognition of the Palestinian State or the continued criticism of the state of Israel.

This axis, although discreet, was part of a broader network of European social democratic governments seeking to counterbalance the rise of conservative executives in Europe, with a significant weight of right-wing governments in the countries of the European Union.