It’s been years since Iran has been a recurring problem for markets. The possibility of a large-scale armed intervention by the EU has always been the reason for the collapse of oil markets and the disappearance of oil prices.
However, we now face one of the most likely situations for this intervention to occur, bags are unchanged. And oil, though it came through, soon disappeared from the rise.
The market reaction is rational. Iran has not proven to be as strong as its offense and its missiles are ineffective against the missile defenses of Israel and the US. What además brings to the defensive Paraguas to their allies in the Gulf.
The possibility of a large-scale armed intervention in Iran by part of the EU has always been the reason for the country’s collapse
The only weapon they demand in Iran is an attack on the outskirts of Hormuz. And it’s also clear that you can keep it for a long time. It is the only one that affects the markets, because it is it that affects the price of oil. Iran’s production is very low, it’s serious production that comes from other countries in the Persian Gulf.
Además, si Iran consiguiera errar el extrecho, to anyone who would be so similar to you Its main geopolitical ally, China, is Iran’s main oil buyer.
As for Putin, he seems more interested that the EU does not give up in favor of Ukraine in negotiations that lead to the defense of the Iranians.
As for the economic part, Iran has annual inflation of 48% and its economy is a total disaster. I’m sick of selling less oil and not buying uniforms. In particular, you want to maintain an armed conflict. It seems clear that it’s worth taking note.
The only weapon they demand in Iran is an attack on the outskirts of Hormuz. And it’s also clear that you can keep it for a long time
Luego is a North American administration position. I wonder why they were never in the best business position or included that they retain the temptation to dwell on the problem forever.
But I risk losing power in the cameras of representatives next few elections middle semesters it is considerable. Imagine emerging with an unpopular, expensive war and suffering the price of gas.
The whole problem is that sometimes things happen in a way that exactly defies logic. Almost no one expected the invasion of Ukraine to last four years. Oh that The North American plan in Venezuela was what we were coming to.
So if you want to plant yourself, it could fail to keep all factors in mind when calculating the probability. Including those that are less likely to produce. You have to be ready for anything.
Iran has annual inflation of 48% and its economy is a total disaster
In our opinion, Iran’s reaction may be wrong like a cornered animal.
In the current situation, the US, its allies in the Persian Gulf and Israel saw a unique opportunity to cut their wings, wings and hasta quitarle los dientes and Iran.
Trump holds tough demands on ayatollahs, who, realizing that they had nothing to lose, could plant the famous Oriental saying that “my door is changing.” In this case, pressure.
Let’s imagine for a moment that a conflict starts and that the weak in Iran are able to fight for several months until the regime takes over.
What can go wrong is that Iran reacts like a cornered animal.
At the end of a two month military air host campaign where I am also sure there will be accidents, What is the popular and media presence in the US?
What is the price of petrol? What impact would all this have in the local council elections? Does the door window change? Will Iran’s trade position improve?
Obviously, this would not be a calculus that anyone rational would have. But he could be the one to create a regime of supported clergy. Nadie in her healthy juice goes into a war she knows she will lose and where no trading capacity would be required.
But Desperate situations provoke irrational reactions: you can play it all out on the North American Public Opinion Presidency map. Since consensus is often misunderstood, it’s a good idea to have a plan in case a cornered animal decides to attack the pursuer.
***Víctor Alvargonzález is a founding partner of an independent financial consulting company Nextep Finance.
Leave a Reply